{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48538ed1-fcea-4beb-843a-4e1e57112de8", "symbol": "300735", "name": "DBG Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.883, "architecture_energy": 51.218, "architecture_maturity": 8.417, "architecture_confidence": 85.117, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.39, "rotation_up": 13.78, "upward_expansion": 12.39, "deceleration": 36.71, "rotation_down": 60.57, "downward_expansion": 81.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.685334, 20.429092, 20.861146, 21.34079 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 20.48, "trend_reference": 22.266122, "distance_from_trend": -0.080217, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.810325, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.139869, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.790718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.167307, "excess_performance": -0.174706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080217, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071092, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.139869, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074819, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126477, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.167307, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.661285, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86252071, "relative_activity": 1.20023, "balance": 1.661285, "dry_up": 1.292581, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.135658, "annualized_volatility": 0.559532, "from_high_reference": -0.36997, "from_low_reference": 0.152504 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.266122, "fair_value_reference": 23.810325, "structural_low": 17.77, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.058252, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.421053, "median_excess_return": 0.002956, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.469961, "worst_return": -0.158038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.022196, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.067007, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.275505, "worst_return": -0.172787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.174081, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.031559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.83688, "worst_return": -0.27524, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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137791686, "typical_volume": 67909125.0, "trend": 22.773843, "fair_value": 23.643671, "relative_strength": -22.829958, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.854158, "energy": 19.112663, "activity_lines": [ 21.479334, 21.429201, 21.454986, 21.976032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.75, "volume": 82307418, "typical_volume": 68658994.35, "trend": 22.599451, "fair_value": 23.694868, "relative_strength": -25.218676, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.220751, "energy": 34.760571, "activity_lines": [ 20.430667, 20.964756, 21.182026, 21.71643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.700001, "volume": 65203461, "typical_volume": 69578420.9, "trend": 22.402955, "fair_value": 23.745185, "relative_strength": -23.627885, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.51063, "energy": 53.686029, "activity_lines": [ 19.661334, 20.519455, 20.927474, 21.464852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.48, "volume": 86252071, "typical_volume": 71862942.65, "trend": 22.266122, "fair_value": 23.810325, "relative_strength": -19.790718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.882993, "energy": 51.217731, "activity_lines": [ 19.685334, 20.429092, 20.861146, 21.34079 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }