{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4853cb7c-79e5-4f74-9237-8c1166b9d69a", "symbol": "603139", "name": "Shaanxi Kanghui Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.725, "architecture_energy": 20.972, "architecture_maturity": 69.225, "architecture_confidence": 76.437, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.89, "rotation_up": 19.14, "upward_expansion": 43.45, "deceleration": 85.13, "rotation_down": 41.76, "downward_expansion": 32.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.996668, 37.106001, 37.223001, 35.179678 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 35.990002, "trend_reference": 31.911334, "distance_from_trend": 0.127813, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.161987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.785042, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 30.400332, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.534101, "excess_performance": 0.577305, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.127813, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206843, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.785042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.263079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.304003, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147393, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.534101, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.91176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14457500, "relative_activity": 0.799898, "balance": 0.91176, "dry_up": 0.963903, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.128861, "annualized_volatility": 0.54497, "from_high_reference": -0.23295, "from_low_reference": 0.807634 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.911334, "fair_value_reference": 20.161987, "structural_low": 22.66, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053684, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.039949, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.209347, "worst_return": -0.250288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088043, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.018931, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307353, "worst_return": -0.194211, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.079905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.106217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.665441, "worst_return": -0.332105, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085921, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.16131, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.522059, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.191892, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015131, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.103737, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004689, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132555, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192693, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087969, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 17.42, "volume": 3750200, "typical_volume": 4484135.75, "trend": 17.377667, "fair_value": 18.450432, "relative_strength": -12.207927, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.3302, 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"activity_lines": [ 41.432, 40.32, 37.281239, 34.192646 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.970001, "volume": 20848400, "typical_volume": 18757640.9, "trend": 30.575334, "fair_value": 19.831667, "relative_strength": 39.235207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.085451, "energy": 40.28937, "activity_lines": [ 39.724001, 39.67091, 37.451858, 34.571205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 22142921, "typical_volume": 18425203.5, "trend": 30.969334, "fair_value": 19.938718, "relative_strength": 26.337629, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.252721, "energy": 18.54201, "activity_lines": [ 37.16, 38.565637, 37.32481, 34.74699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.080002, "volume": 12238197, "typical_volume": 18186208.85, "trend": 31.394, "fair_value": 20.040833, "relative_strength": 24.121287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.023588, "energy": 20.664465, "activity_lines": [ 35.316667, 37.514728, 37.14762, 34.883162 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.990002, "volume": 14457500, "typical_volume": 18074176.25, "trend": 31.911334, "fair_value": 20.161987, "relative_strength": 30.400332, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.725152, "energy": 20.972328, "activity_lines": [ 34.996668, 37.106001, 37.223001, 35.179678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }