{ "ticker": { "uuid": "485597d4-59d6-4675-ba52-0a66132cc883", "symbol": "688601", "name": "Wuxi ETEK Microelectronics Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.063, "architecture_energy": 76.976, "architecture_maturity": 19.098, "architecture_confidence": 80.19, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.48, "rotation_up": 8.17, "upward_expansion": 17.49, "deceleration": 37.03, "rotation_down": 75.56, "downward_expansion": 90.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.953334, 45.411388, 50.15678, 51.415348 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 41.080002, "trend_reference": 52.24661, "distance_from_trend": -0.213729, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.557004, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.078035, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.949177, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.194036, "excess_performance": -0.150832, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213729, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.078035, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.194036, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.92893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21886148, "relative_activity": 0.821286, "balance": 0.92893, "dry_up": 1.005196, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.200143, "annualized_volatility": 0.764984, "from_high_reference": -0.406338, "from_low_reference": 0.238095 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.24661, "fair_value_reference": 44.557004, "structural_low": 33.18, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.005825, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.005802, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.467287, "worst_return": -0.062737, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.051318, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.039004, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.571809, "worst_return": -0.025018, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.047862, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066834, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.129156, "worst_return": -0.133412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.436401, "energy": 11.545856, "activity_lines": [ 55.851755, 56.682405, 55.865691, 54.724469 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 56.450001, "volume": 32730007, "typical_volume": 28462307.3, "trend": 52.95561, "fair_value": 44.740533, "relative_strength": 15.597934, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.469312, "energy": 15.472334, "activity_lines": [ 56.11819, 56.5908, 56.000271, 54.968774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.580002, "volume": 33066467, "typical_volume": 28737977.0, "trend": 52.881277, "fair_value": 44.712718, "relative_strength": -9.573183, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.539315, "energy": 27.527539, "activity_lines": [ 51.264259, 53.728407, 54.691755, 54.234864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.709999, "volume": 25281387, "typical_volume": 28275221.05, "trend": 52.604277, "fair_value": 44.659783, "relative_strength": -18.909303, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.956524, "energy": 59.227519, "activity_lines": [ 45.887401, 50.345081, 53.068525, 53.256072 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.290001, "volume": 26914328, "typical_volume": 27310557.4, "trend": 52.296943, "fair_value": 44.576649, "relative_strength": -24.168794, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.790143, "energy": 80.808164, "activity_lines": [ 41.266001, 47.079375, 51.291438, 52.139022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.080002, "volume": 21886148, "typical_volume": 26648616.85, "trend": 52.24661, "fair_value": 44.557004, "relative_strength": -13.949177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.062949, "energy": 76.975852, "activity_lines": [ 39.953334, 45.411388, 50.15678, 51.415348 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }