{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4865d77f-8be2-4340-8a8f-2f09c40fcdcf", "symbol": "601139", "name": "Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 91.313, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.862, "architecture_energy": 29.095, "architecture_maturity": 76.494, "architecture_confidence": 66.849, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.24, "rotation_up": 41.13, "upward_expansion": 21.9, "deceleration": 44.16, "rotation_down": 17.77, "downward_expansion": 53.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.364667, 6.196372, 6.263544, 6.447547 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.34, "trend_reference": 6.629551, "distance_from_trend": -0.043676, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.633075, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.044184, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.191992, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079826, "excess_performance": -0.036622, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.043676, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026566, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.044184, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060858, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079826, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976266, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 112527150, "relative_activity": 0.94574, "balance": 0.976266, "dry_up": 1.175948, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047344, "annualized_volatility": 0.288165, "from_high_reference": -0.2075, "from_low_reference": 0.136201 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.629551, "fair_value_reference": 6.633075, "structural_low": 5.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.01014, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010428, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.115324, "worst_return": -0.104668, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.01667, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.003787, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.133738, "worst_return": -0.182143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049019, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.079603, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.093841, "worst_return": -0.177795, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"direction": -44.595707, "energy": 34.368784, "activity_lines": [ 6.133333, 6.076027, 6.281987, 6.472693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 131823573, "typical_volume": 130670248.5, "trend": 6.638217, "fair_value": 6.638665, "relative_strength": 1.526225, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.402081, "energy": 25.30914, "activity_lines": [ 6.314667, 6.156827, 6.280147, 6.466787 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.34, "volume": 112527150, "typical_volume": 118983167.15, "trend": 6.629551, "fair_value": 6.633075, "relative_strength": -4.191992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.861554, "energy": 29.095446, "activity_lines": [ 6.364667, 6.196372, 6.263544, 6.447547 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }