{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4868a76b-5b38-48e8-bbe8-9c587f6e1b43", "symbol": "AVTR", "name": "Avantor Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "model_version": "ta-0.1.0", "as_of_week": "2026-07-31", "benchmark": "SPY", "history_weeks": 344, "chart_window_weeks": 156, "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "stage_color": "blue", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "stage_age_weeks": 6, "hard_stage_exit": false, "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_score": 65.62, "is_transition_watch": true, "confidence": 95.557, "composite_score": 81.867, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_color": "teal", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 94.588, "architecture_energy": 93.695, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.829, "architecture_age_weeks": 6, "is_reacceleration_watch": false, "architecture": { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 94.588, "energy": 93.695, "maturity": 32.0, "confidence": 77.829, "confirmation": 99.056, "age_weeks": 6, "candidate": "upward_expansion", "candidate_weeks": 1, "hard_reversal": false, "reacceleration_watch": false, "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "The fast Activity Lines are gaining on the slow pair and price acceptance is improving. This is earlier than a full trend confirmation: renewed bullish ordering and fan expansion are still required." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.76, "rotation_up": 88.17, "upward_expansion": 98.96, "deceleration": 39.17, "rotation_down": 8.5, "downward_expansion": 20.96 }, "activity_lines": { "5": 11.931333, "10": 11.078182, "20": 9.972429, "30": 9.562925 }, "activity_slopes": { "5": 1.736152, "10": 1.452833, "20": 0.995987, "30": 0.503968 }, "bullish_order": 1.0, "bearish_order": 0.0, "fan_width_atr": 2.085855, "fan_width_change_4": 0.864606, "fan_width_percentile": 0.807692, "fast_slow_gap_atr": 1.529846, "fast_slow_gap_change_4": 0.844515, "price_acceptance": 1.0, "current_fan_distance_atr": 1.628119, "accepted_above": 1.0, "accepted_below": 0.0, "crossing_density": 0.25 }, "interpretation": { "headline": "Price is repairing upward toward current Fair Value.", "body": "The market remains below the long-term Fair Value anchor, so the recovery stays in Stage 1. A narrowing gap, improving relative strength, range compression and eventual resistance absorption determine whether it can graduate to Stage 2.", "phase": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "transition_context": "The evidence score for the next canonical transition is 66/100." }, "latest_close": 13.78, "sma_30": 9.520333, "distance_from_sma_30": 0.447428, "sma_30_slope": -0.032945, "fair_value": 17.426026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.209229, "fair_value_gap_change_13": 0.356307, "is_fair_value_repair": true, "mansfield_rs": 17.241255, "mansfield_rs_change_13": 55.354725, "range_position_52": 0.751875, "returns": { "13": 0.731156, "26": 0.261905, "52": 0.213028 }, "relative_returns": { "26": 0.176584, "52": -0.001807 }, "stage_scores": { "1": 54.54, "2": 44.0, "3": 26.56, "4": 16.62 }, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs 30-week average", "positive": true, "value": 0.447428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "30-week slope", "positive": false, "value": -0.032945, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.209229, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "13-week Fair Value gap", "positive": true, "value": 0.356307, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Mansfield RS vs SPY", "positive": true, "value": 0.172413, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "13-week RS change", "positive": true, "value": 0.553547, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "26-week price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.261905, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "13-week volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 13.75319, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109524010, "ratio_20": 2.265201, "up_down_ratio_13": 13.75319, "dry_up_ratio": 1.325931, "accumulation_weeks": 6, "distribution_weeks": 0 }, "base": { "high_26": 11.75, "low_26": 7.265, "depth": 0.381702, "compression": 0.743712, "breakout_distance": 0.172766 }, "risk": { "atr_percent": 0.082399, "annualized_volatility": 0.53442, 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{ "price_basis": "completed weekly OHLCV", "trend": "30-week simple moving average; slope compares the current value with ten completed weeks earlier", "fair_value": "current horizontal Fair Value is the arithmetic mean of up to 156 completed weekly closes; Stage 1 repair measures whether price is below and rising toward that anchor", "relative_strength": "Mansfield-style relative performance line: ticker/SPY divided by its trailing 52-week mean, minus one", "classification": "Trend Architecture uses the Activity Line position as a direction gate, then classifies ordering, four-week slopes, ATR-normalized fan width, fast/slow rotation and six-week price acceptance. Ordinary regime changes require two completed observations; a fully aligned reversal beyond the fan can change immediately.", "architecture_boundary": "The green/red/orange Trend gate is derived from the same Activity Lines and is therefore not counted as an independent vote. Relative strength and volume alter confirmation, while point-in-time Fair Value supplies context rather than determining the regime.", "admissibility": "Stage 2 cannot persist when price is more than 5% below the 30-week average or 8% below current Fair Value, the ten-week average slope is below -2%, Mansfield RS is below -8, or the 26-week return is below -15%. Stage 4 requires price no more than 5% above the average, RS no higher than +8, and at least one deterioration test: slope at or below +1.5%, 13-week return at or below -10%, or 26-week return at or below -12%. These are exit boundaries, not entry signals.", "confidence": "separation between the leading and runner-up stage evidence scores; not forecast probability" }, "historical_outcomes": [ { "weeks": 4, "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.007614, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": -0.009564, "stage_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.11284, "worst_return": -0.172848, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 13, "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.105944, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.131564, "stage_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.13403, "worst_return": -0.198041, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 26, "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.126732, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.206679, "stage_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.108726, "worst_return": -0.447166, "sufficient": true }, { "weeks": 52, "sample_count": 2, 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