{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4868a76b-5b38-48e8-bbe8-9c587f6e1b43", "symbol": "AVTR", "name": "Avantor Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 68.4, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.034, "architecture_energy": 70.629, "architecture_maturity": 36.491, "architecture_confidence": 84.764, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.21, "rotation_up": 74.55, "upward_expansion": 90.0, "deceleration": 53.41, "rotation_down": 18.8, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.024667, 14.454909, 12.887762, 11.711742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 15.52, "trend_reference": 10.347333, "distance_from_trend": 0.499903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.123077, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.093621, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 30.581614, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.066578, "excess_performance": 0.88917, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.499903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095033, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.093621, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.368473, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.305816, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.52716, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.066578, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.484626, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 52533835, "relative_activity": 1.145516, "balance": 6.484626, "dry_up": 0.826013, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075758, "annualized_volatility": 0.386564, "from_high_reference": -0.033022, "from_low_reference": 1.13627 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.347333, "fair_value_reference": 17.123077, "structural_low": 7.265, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.036929, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.032645, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.101545, "worst_return": -0.13163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.097831, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.166085, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.124723, "worst_return": -0.171119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.071397, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.223669, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.01469, "worst_return": -0.373597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 93.228877, "activity_lines": [ 13.780667, 12.715818, 11.233143, 10.402946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 14.58, "volume": 26819099, "typical_volume": 47335980.35, "trend": 9.820333, "fair_value": 17.237885, "relative_strength": 21.838959, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.316832, "energy": 91.176182, "activity_lines": [ 14.178667, 13.210909, 11.657095, 10.717892 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 14.97, "volume": 38105827, "typical_volume": 46861771.25, "trend": 9.944, "fair_value": 17.204167, "relative_strength": 25.163264, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.577668, "energy": 89.183372, "activity_lines": [ 14.497333, 13.686, 12.086381, 11.050129 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 14.81, "volume": 34066342, "typical_volume": 46106590.15, "trend": 10.131, "fair_value": 17.15891, "relative_strength": 24.705363, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.090711, "energy": 78.679382, "activity_lines": [ 14.683333, 14.046727, 12.469714, 11.364065 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 15.52, "volume": 52533835, "typical_volume": 45860410.55, "trend": 10.347333, "fair_value": 17.123077, "relative_strength": 30.581614, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.033698, "energy": 70.628726, "activity_lines": [ 15.024667, 14.454909, 12.887762, 11.711742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }