{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48690b1b-a830-4b42-9f4b-a41c03c5d586", "symbol": "002066", "name": "Ruitai Materials Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 51.618, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.66, "architecture_energy": 28.355, "architecture_maturity": 8.787, "architecture_confidence": 51.323, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.56, "rotation_up": 17.78, "upward_expansion": 17.17, "deceleration": 59.25, "rotation_down": 54.93, "downward_expansion": 42.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.110667, 20.487636, 21.697095, 21.634215 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.59, "trend_reference": 21.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.034844, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.035033, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.579589, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.409334, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.028472, "excess_performance": 0.021072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034844, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049765, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.579589, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.343338, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054093, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119196, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.649414, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14420738, "relative_activity": 0.538031, "balance": 0.649414, "dry_up": 0.711551, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104233, "annualized_volatility": 0.368203, "from_high_reference": -0.270634, "from_low_reference": 0.736088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.333333, "fair_value_reference": 13.035033, "structural_low": 17.620001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.08933, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.07409, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.229909, "worst_return": -0.025974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.129016, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.140553, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.315954, "worst_return": 0.018434, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.029316, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.222667, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.378076, "worst_return": -0.063312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 28014625, "typical_volume": 26597780.5, "trend": 21.224667, "fair_value": 12.819271, "relative_strength": 0.504955, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.121925, "energy": 31.631265, "activity_lines": [ 21.045334, 22.196182, 22.482048, 21.973161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 22341900, "typical_volume": 26785695.55, "trend": 21.223, "fair_value": 12.866009, "relative_strength": 2.843335, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.665709, "energy": 46.626783, "activity_lines": [ 20.23, 21.453818, 22.187714, 21.827054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.08, "volume": 24143268, "typical_volume": 26962473.55, "trend": 21.236333, "fair_value": 12.920676, "relative_strength": 7.876477, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.45953, "energy": 47.492781, "activity_lines": [ 20.028667, 20.994545, 22.009667, 21.753312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.07, "volume": 15380402, "typical_volume": 26746370.4, "trend": 21.269667, "fair_value": 12.976219, "relative_strength": 8.825623, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.039545, "energy": 45.991908, "activity_lines": [ 19.941333, 20.642182, 21.830333, 21.678064 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.59, "volume": 14420738, "typical_volume": 26802808.65, "trend": 21.333333, "fair_value": 13.035033, "relative_strength": 5.409334, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.660363, "energy": 28.355188, "activity_lines": [ 20.110667, 20.487636, 21.697095, 21.634215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }