{ "ticker": { "uuid": "486c08fb-8534-40b8-9fc1-164847797cd2", "symbol": "300632", "name": "Xiamen Guang Pu Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.132, "architecture_energy": 45.753, "architecture_maturity": 6.071, "architecture_confidence": 58.068, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.24, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 22.18, "deceleration": 54.12, "rotation_down": 67.28, "downward_expansion": 49.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.615333, 20.469506, 23.182234, 22.06719 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.17, "trend_reference": 20.197881, "distance_from_trend": -0.050891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.250025, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.44679, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.153893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.395197, "excess_performance": 0.387797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.163576, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.44679, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.611896, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.395197, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.408213, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 126410722, "relative_activity": 0.936756, "balance": 1.408213, "dry_up": 0.704575, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.287993, "annualized_volatility": 1.079911, "from_high_reference": -0.544723, "from_low_reference": 0.563622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.197881, "fair_value_reference": 13.250025, "structural_low": 13.2, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.053849, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.073563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266326, "worst_return": 0.025818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.105997, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.048312, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.320408, "worst_return": -0.242305, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.128689, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.028557, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.172902, "worst_return": -0.068867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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28.850994, "energy": 17.818838, "activity_lines": [ 25.389349, 27.14032, 25.263166, 22.778321 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.530001, "volume": 82716802, "typical_volume": 128254412.3, "trend": 19.899881, "fair_value": 13.159241, "relative_strength": 3.406633, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.429383, "energy": 15.843957, "activity_lines": [ 22.460019, 25.171285, 24.792469, 22.632092 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 94081412, "typical_volume": 130406616.15, "trend": 19.958548, "fair_value": 13.180518, "relative_strength": -5.663027, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.207824, "energy": 34.478577, "activity_lines": [ 19.557333, 23.069174, 24.168295, 22.384358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.89, "volume": 77107026, "typical_volume": 131843834.15, "trend": 20.017548, "fair_value": 13.203592, "relative_strength": -5.330431, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.04568, "energy": 41.282686, "activity_lines": [ 17.619333, 21.283215, 23.521503, 22.121871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.17, "volume": 126410722, "typical_volume": 134945201.1, "trend": 20.197881, "fair_value": 13.250025, "relative_strength": 8.153893, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.132276, "energy": 45.753319, "activity_lines": [ 17.615333, 20.469506, 23.182234, 22.06719 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }