{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4873a8b1-7618-497b-aa51-08cc56ec55d0",
    "symbol": "4146",
    "name": "Gas Arabian Services Co.",
    "exchange": "SAU",
    "country": "SA",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TASI.SR",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 80.578,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 28.058,
    "architecture_energy": 22.387,
    "architecture_maturity": 60.843,
    "architecture_confidence": 87.671,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 37.12,
        "rotation_up": 24.4,
        "upward_expansion": 57.62,
        "deceleration": 88.24,
        "rotation_down": 37.78,
        "downward_expansion": 23.62
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        15.679334,
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        15.840186,
        15.277538
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      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 15.21,
    "trend_reference": 14.512849,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.048037,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 12.706881,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.196989,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 1.620429,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.171207,
    "excess_performance": 0.203037,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048037,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.029197,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.196989,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.128053,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016204,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.030084,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.171207,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.655903,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 992720,
      "relative_activity": 0.640133,
      "balance": 1.655903,
      "dry_up": 0.514119,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.081677,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.367229,
      "from_high_reference": -0.163826,
      "from_low_reference": 0.292031
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 14.512849,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.706881,
      "structural_low": 11.772166,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.001184,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.555556,
        "median_excess_return": 0.051763,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.474359,
        "worst_return": -0.20331,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.098368,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.041003,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.454545,
        "worst_return": -0.207101,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.046092,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.105712,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.370595,
        "worst_return": -0.193491,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 0.433768,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.51993,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 0.433768,
        "worst_return": 0.433768,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-09-01",
        "end": "2024-03-08",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.232432,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-03-15",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.35585,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2024-11-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.365289,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.084966,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.199324,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
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        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001184,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2025-12-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.005935,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2026-04-10",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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        "active": true
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        "typical_volume": 1274966.9,
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        "fair_value": 11.899161,
        "relative_strength": -3.61054,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 12.011763,
        "relative_strength": -0.835875,
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
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        "direction": 26.726223,
        "energy": 45.503237,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 32.514797,
        "energy": 53.797281,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1953980,
        "typical_volume": 1262280.05,
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        "fair_value": 12.154208,
        "relative_strength": 6.072293,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 50.296728,
        "energy": 51.535296,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 1278065.5,
        "trend": 14.083732,
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        "relative_strength": 9.460981,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 1337813.25,
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        "fair_value": 12.276058,
        "relative_strength": 5.224623,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 66.241542,
        "energy": 68.8577,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 16.6,
        "volume": 1752034,
        "typical_volume": 1398957.75,
        "trend": 14.069323,
        "fair_value": 12.340249,
        "relative_strength": 9.993474,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.0134,
        "energy": 73.415257,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.26,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 4399827,
        "typical_volume": 1609767.8,
        "trend": 14.107952,
        "fair_value": 12.409396,
        "relative_strength": 18.192008,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 81.529853,
        "energy": 81.401886,
        "activity_lines": [
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          14.688702
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.24,
        "volume": 1313560,
        "typical_volume": 1591390.35,
        "trend": 14.130247,
        "fair_value": 12.4781,
        "relative_strength": 14.8387,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.041602,
        "energy": 71.553463,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.050667,
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          14.89077
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 16.77,
        "volume": 315389,
        "typical_volume": 1586596.6,
        "trend": 14.249179,
        "fair_value": 12.542207,
        "relative_strength": 12.582342,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.185196,
        "energy": 59.255244,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.020667,
          16.593455,
          15.73685,
          15.061076
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 16.360001,
        "volume": 454819,
        "typical_volume": 1540703.25,
        "trend": 14.357055,
        "fair_value": 12.604273,
        "relative_strength": 9.170969,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.787953,
        "energy": 48.693968,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.844,
          16.636182,
          15.871882,
          15.197258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 14.82,
        "volume": 1426265,
        "typical_volume": 1517155.35,
        "trend": 14.428615,
        "fair_value": 12.652363,
        "relative_strength": 1.130085,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 32.43883,
        "energy": 22.685604,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.137334,
          16.373818,
          15.842038,
          15.227126
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 15.21,
        "volume": 992720,
        "typical_volume": 1550803.75,
        "trend": 14.512849,
        "fair_value": 12.706881,
        "relative_strength": 1.620429,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.058356,
        "energy": 22.387292,
        "activity_lines": [
          15.679334,
          16.178364,
          15.840186,
          15.277538
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}