{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4878b50d-fab2-473e-af85-5de887715e04", "symbol": "JSDE", "name": "JPM Europe Research Enhanced Index Equity SRI Paris Aligned Active UCITS ETF - EUR (dist)", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 77.293, "architecture_energy": 57.708, "architecture_maturity": 32.898, "architecture_confidence": 78.836, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.74, "rotation_up": 53.16, "upward_expansion": 79.92, "deceleration": 63.0, "rotation_down": 26.03, "downward_expansion": 8.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.020333, 30.911435, 30.441756, 30.03021 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 31.48, "trend_reference": 29.622513, "distance_from_trend": 0.062705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.18465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.158006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.074835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071941, "excess_performance": 0.007301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.062705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.158006, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056514, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.020748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071941, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.222194, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6524, "relative_activity": 1.956398, "balance": 2.222194, "dry_up": 1.740112, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019236, "annualized_volatility": 0.160654, "from_high_reference": -0.002851, "from_low_reference": 0.229928 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.622513, "fair_value_reference": 27.18465, "structural_low": 26.648746, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001735, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.015605, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001735, "worst_return": 0.001735, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.341495, "energy": 84.219063, "activity_lines": [ 30.773264, 30.36426, 29.773553, 29.521347 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 30.875, "volume": 9729, "typical_volume": 2519.6, "trend": 29.264223, "fair_value": 27.001341, "relative_strength": 6.119047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.562732, "energy": 78.70194, "activity_lines": [ 30.897193, 30.519604, 29.91233, 29.632659 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 30.684999, "volume": 4506, "typical_volume": 2695.8, "trend": 29.35707, "fair_value": 27.045722, "relative_strength": 6.165529, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.216143, "energy": 75.836099, "activity_lines": [ 30.879717, 30.609312, 30.029193, 29.724322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.76, "volume": 3004, "typical_volume": 2836.6, "trend": 29.450104, "fair_value": 27.08994, "relative_strength": 5.025675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.086982, "energy": 66.998126, "activity_lines": [ 30.851805, 30.687383, 30.151491, 29.814833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.844999, "volume": 9177, "typical_volume": 3008.5, "trend": 29.53655, "fair_value": 27.134117, "relative_strength": 2.923093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.842588, "energy": 48.472234, "activity_lines": [ 30.834844, 30.748091, 30.272602, 29.904826 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.48, "volume": 6524, "typical_volume": 3334.7, "trend": 29.622513, "fair_value": 27.18465, "relative_strength": 2.074835, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.292635, "energy": 57.707698, "activity_lines": [ 31.020333, 30.911435, 30.441756, 30.03021 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }