{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "48807b75-6375-4f58-9fd1-a1c4443e34bc",
    "symbol": "603158",
    "name": "Changzhou Tenglong AutoPartsCo.,Ltd.",
    "exchange": "SHH",
    "country": "CN",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "000001.SS",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 48.605,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -37.352,
    "architecture_energy": 61.34,
    "architecture_maturity": 15.569,
    "architecture_confidence": 65.733,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 21.14,
        "rotation_up": 17.01,
        "upward_expansion": 21.41,
        "deceleration": 43.88,
        "rotation_down": 71.09,
        "downward_expansion": 63.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        9.863855,
        10.624437,
        11.992756,
        12.155362
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 10.92,
    "trend_reference": 12.061115,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.094611,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 9.077149,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203021,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.855051,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.054054,
    "excess_performance": 0.097258,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.094611,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.037456,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.203021,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.636992,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038551,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.441014,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.054054,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.806844,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 132860934,
      "relative_activity": 1.007246,
      "balance": 0.806844,
      "dry_up": 0.818049,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.166558,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.742368,
      "from_high_reference": -0.361404,
      "from_low_reference": 0.379323
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 12.061115,
      "fair_value_reference": 9.077149,
      "structural_low": 7.916926,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.03207,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": 0.037438,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.155325,
        "worst_return": -0.137239,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.095648,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": 0.055361,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.218935,
        "worst_return": -0.064435,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.008047,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.021741,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.394267,
        "worst_return": -0.048544,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.036698,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.095034,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.205614,
        "worst_return": -0.132217,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.010243,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-29",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.03423,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-01-31",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0553,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074541,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.094612,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.160889,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.165004,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.02439,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.018587,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.0875,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.015625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.043919,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
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        "return": 0.154749,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-07-28",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
      {
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        "relative_strength": -12.543333,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -42.036394,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 8.76,
        "volume": 117800904,
        "typical_volume": 145882237.9,
        "trend": 12.090115,
        "fair_value": 9.041895,
        "relative_strength": -20.030054,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -42.508472,
        "energy": 64.681786,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 9.23,
        "volume": 91312068,
        "typical_volume": 135458696.95,
        "trend": 12.050449,
        "fair_value": 9.053093,
        "relative_strength": -16.184287,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -43.711072,
        "energy": 67.509651,
        "activity_lines": [
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          12.228294
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 10.92,
        "volume": 132860934,
        "typical_volume": 131905176.5,
        "trend": 12.061115,
        "fair_value": 9.077149,
        "relative_strength": -3.855051,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -37.351941,
        "energy": 61.340075,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}