{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4880a6f2-c114-463f-9166-1e0987034762", "symbol": "3033", "name": "CSOP ETF Series - CSOP Hang Seng TECH Index ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.521, "architecture_energy": 15.58, "architecture_maturity": 97.587, "architecture_confidence": 59.939, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.39, "rotation_up": 35.62, "upward_expansion": 22.12, "deceleration": 41.03, "rotation_down": 20.75, "downward_expansion": 53.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.671867, 4.59, 4.63959, 4.703929 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.766, "trend_reference": 4.855133, "distance_from_trend": -0.018359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.523391, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.053634, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.306434, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.088719, "excess_performance": -0.055138, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018359, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060897, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.053634, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064296, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083064, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015141, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.088719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.640833, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13734776682, "relative_activity": 1.566411, "balance": 1.640833, "dry_up": 1.865704, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053213, "annualized_volatility": 0.228211, "from_high_reference": -0.277331, "from_low_reference": 0.148987 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.855133, "fair_value_reference": 4.523391, "structural_low": 4.148, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.013854, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.002063, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.195, "worst_return": -0.129851, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.062303, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.004855, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.164435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067802, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.033636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044802, "worst_return": -0.120756, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 33.338733, "activity_lines": [ 4.517333, 4.526764, 4.627324, 4.723082 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.73, "volume": 16764579564, "typical_volume": 8511185303.05, "trend": 4.881767, "fair_value": 4.519827, "relative_strength": -10.01568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.939352, "energy": 17.942627, "activity_lines": [ 4.606933, 4.554873, 4.63141, 4.711398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.766, "volume": 13734776682, "typical_volume": 8768307889.0, "trend": 4.855133, "fair_value": 4.523391, "relative_strength": -8.306434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.520605, "energy": 15.579584, "activity_lines": [ 4.671867, 4.59, 4.63959, 4.703929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }