{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4892a8a4-7c2a-480d-abb9-4f96972280f9", "symbol": "603843", "name": "Zhengping Road & Bridge Construction Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.424, "architecture_energy": 50.865, "architecture_maturity": 10.627, "architecture_confidence": 51.704, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.59, "rotation_up": 17.75, "upward_expansion": 18.6, "deceleration": 44.76, "rotation_down": 60.86, "downward_expansion": 55.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.908, 7.267273, 7.82381, 7.838172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.14, "trend_reference": 7.578333, "distance_from_trend": -0.05784, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.325256, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.650769, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.911097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.344633, "excess_performance": 0.387837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05784, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041218, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.650769, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.703003, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.089111, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.525498, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.344633, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.441068, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69262720, "relative_activity": 0.827338, "balance": 0.441068, "dry_up": 1.082529, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14081, "annualized_volatility": 0.71076, "from_high_reference": -0.275127, "from_low_reference": 1.77821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.578333, "fair_value_reference": 4.325256, "structural_low": 5.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.202089, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.173795, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": 0.070845, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.090145, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": 0.013624, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.167989, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 1.064264, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.829167, "worst_return": 0.506812, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.648672, 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"end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.371429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.182825, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.298932, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058065, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.176796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"typical_volume": 88156060.75, "trend": 7.383667, "fair_value": 4.264359, "relative_strength": 3.562293, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.119922, "energy": 51.197177, "activity_lines": [ 7.194667, 7.760364, 8.182381, 7.926366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.53, "volume": 123319164, "typical_volume": 88266863.75, "trend": 7.452333, "fair_value": 4.281923, "relative_strength": 5.414778, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.60236, "energy": 57.605435, "activity_lines": [ 6.812667, 7.469273, 8.021095, 7.87129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.33, "volume": 77185804, "typical_volume": 87989431.25, "trend": 7.531, "fair_value": 4.304551, "relative_strength": 16.332726, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.253003, "energy": 54.791257, "activity_lines": [ 6.848667, 7.370364, 7.933, 7.863398 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.14, "volume": 69262720, "typical_volume": 83717558.8, "trend": 7.578333, "fair_value": 4.325256, "relative_strength": 8.911097, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.423804, "energy": 50.865125, "activity_lines": [ 6.908, 7.267273, 7.82381, 7.838172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }