{ "ticker": { "uuid": "489c8d27-49df-4283-828f-dadc1f960a2d", "symbol": "WDESGE", "name": "UBS MSCI World Selection UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.094, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.414, "architecture_energy": 67.947, "architecture_maturity": 80.763, "architecture_confidence": 71.342, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.31, "rotation_up": 57.17, "upward_expansion": 84.88, "deceleration": 68.35, "rotation_down": 28.85, "downward_expansion": 11.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 260.097329, 258.991996, 256.25814, 251.546858 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 267.75, "trend_reference": 246.563333, "distance_from_trend": 0.085928, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 221.54304, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208569, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.925213, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131131, "excess_performance": -0.039761, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.085928, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033436, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208569, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044953, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.039252, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011778, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131131, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.231513, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 366, "relative_activity": 1.285112, "balance": 2.231513, "dry_up": 1.574789, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015086, "annualized_volatility": 0.132401, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.233132 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 246.563333, "fair_value_reference": 221.54304, "structural_low": 220.449997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.004019, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.002224, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028494, "worst_return": -0.010006, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.064062, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.025753, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.064062, "worst_return": 0.064062, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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257.803997, 251.872475, 247.915613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 257.299988, "volume": 1277, "typical_volume": 352.25, "trend": 244.519667, "fair_value": 220.397678, "relative_strength": -4.805724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.950153, "energy": 63.263836, "activity_lines": [ 258.307996, 257.902177, 252.956902, 248.789074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 253.029999, "volume": 137, "typical_volume": 337.2, "trend": 245.041333, "fair_value": 220.724001, "relative_strength": -6.096572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.805596, "energy": 55.623903, "activity_lines": [ 256.627996, 257.120905, 253.555569, 249.338128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 257.23999, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 301.95, "trend": 245.713333, "fair_value": 221.085545, "relative_strength": -5.046484, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.766568, "energy": 47.176247, "activity_lines": [ 256.67866, 257.114541, 254.470997, 250.125138 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 267.75, "volume": 366, "typical_volume": 284.8, "trend": 246.563333, "fair_value": 221.54304, "relative_strength": -3.925213, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.414477, "energy": 67.947423, "activity_lines": [ 260.097329, 258.991996, 256.25814, 251.546858 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }