{ "ticker": { "uuid": "489ff5d4-d44e-4160-b378-dd95b2087d64", "symbol": "ALVIR", "name": "VIRTUALWARE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.873, "architecture_energy": 53.729, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.857, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.61, "rotation_up": 17.04, "upward_expansion": 7.09, "deceleration": 58.69, "rotation_down": 64.36, "downward_expansion": 80.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.336, 4.495636, 4.922667, 5.247333 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.1, "trend_reference": 5.737667, "distance_from_trend": -0.285424, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.536853, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.456006, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.206834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.430556, "excess_performance": -0.483867, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.285424, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.138704, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.456006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229172, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.412068, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219189, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.430556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.109756, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.284698, "balance": 1.109756, "dry_up": 1.711744, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171107, "annualized_volatility": 0.818388, "from_high_reference": -0.470968, "from_low_reference": 0.025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.737667, "fair_value_reference": 7.536853, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.026144, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.036372, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.100629, "worst_return": -0.168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.04375, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.067039, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.087838, "worst_return": -0.201342, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.092633, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.134198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.040541, "worst_return": -0.225806, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006757, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.07799, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.006757, "worst_return": -0.006757, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094595, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.085714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0125, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006494, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.470968, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 8.5, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 8.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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"relative_strength": -30.675185, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.664001, "energy": 51.071627, "activity_lines": [ 4.450667, 4.627091, 5.042095, 5.360194 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.1, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 70.25, "trend": 5.737667, "fair_value": 7.536853, "relative_strength": -41.206834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.872823, "energy": 53.729355, "activity_lines": [ 4.336, 4.495636, 4.922667, 5.247333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }