{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48a1b239-19d1-450f-bc22-300009be5dcb", "symbol": "EMSRI", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets SRI Climate Paris Aligned - UCITS ETF DR (C)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 68.822, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.272, "architecture_energy": 23.344, "architecture_maturity": 64.174, "architecture_confidence": 85.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.09, "rotation_up": 24.88, "upward_expansion": 56.93, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 36.23, "downward_expansion": 20.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.170001, 79.820546, 79.693952, 78.432968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 80.010002, "trend_reference": 76.956333, "distance_from_trend": 0.039681, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.273017, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244846, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.637852, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.076271, "excess_performance": -0.006612, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.039681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244846, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057138, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.016379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151777, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.076271, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.805556, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 10.805556, "dry_up": 0.243353, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028977, "annualized_volatility": 0.212822, "from_high_reference": -0.035443, "from_low_reference": 0.246262 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 76.956333, "fair_value_reference": 64.273017, "structural_low": 68.309998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025749, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.115808, "worst_return": 0.010366, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.153147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184492, "worst_return": 0.121801, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.206902, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.151681, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.206902, "worst_return": 0.206902, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030268, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009996, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109524, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007502, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019106, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-24", "close": 53.48, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-31", "close": 51.669998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-07", "close": 52.450001, "volume": 1097, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-06-14", 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"trend": 76.956333, "fair_value": 64.273017, "relative_strength": -1.637852, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.272432, "energy": 23.343632, "activity_lines": [ 79.170001, 79.820546, 79.693952, 78.432968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }