{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48aed458-501f-4979-adcd-7f8c44ed22e3", "symbol": "AAJ", "name": "Aruma Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.203, "architecture_energy": 79.635, "architecture_maturity": 50.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.34, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.56, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 18.27, "deceleration": 37.61, "rotation_down": 75.38, "downward_expansion": 96.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.008536, 0.010212, 0.011306 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.007, "trend_reference": 0.013417, "distance_from_trend": -0.478261, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.016404, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.573271, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.942183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.65, "excess_performance": -0.713706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.478261, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147246, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.573271, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232569, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.519422, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.484865, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.65, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.552166, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13963574, "relative_activity": 0.87974, "balance": 0.552166, "dry_up": 0.536394, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.296703, "annualized_volatility": 0.929218, "from_high_reference": -0.825, "from_low_reference": 0.076923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.013417, "fair_value_reference": 0.016404, "structural_low": 0.0065, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.032609, "positive_rate": 0.46875, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.037431, "regime_survival": 0.78125, "best_return": 0.4375, "worst_return": -0.285714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.142157, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.108478, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.384615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.215385, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.261039, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.875, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.16144, "energy": 77.119811, "activity_lines": [ 0.0084, 0.0095, 0.010998, 0.012122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.008, "volume": 6375377, "typical_volume": 15935589.2, "trend": 0.013683, "fair_value": 0.016609, "relative_strength": -43.349177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.389508, "energy": 75.697863, "activity_lines": [ 0.0082, 0.009064, 0.010643, 0.011738 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.007, "volume": 13963574, "typical_volume": 15872393.55, "trend": 0.013417, "fair_value": 0.016404, "relative_strength": -51.942183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.203064, "energy": 79.634651, "activity_lines": [ 0.007733, 0.008536, 0.010212, 0.011306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }