{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48b151be-fd0d-4358-b19d-978ed08ce03b", "symbol": "TDG", "name": "Transdigm Group Incorporated", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 87.462, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.305, "architecture_energy": 17.294, "architecture_maturity": 24.124, "architecture_confidence": 63.832, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.86, "rotation_up": 18.1, "upward_expansion": 20.55, "deceleration": 68.93, "rotation_down": 53.66, "downward_expansion": 34.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 1238.274, 1262.930364, 1250.822238, 1246.028667 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1225.25, "trend_reference": 1261.138333, "distance_from_trend": -0.028457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1173.835189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043801, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.021246, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.046891, "excess_performance": -0.172516, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.028457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015424, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032952, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.046891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.976707, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3576464, "relative_activity": 1.840671, "balance": 0.976707, "dry_up": 1.125045, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063988, "annualized_volatility": 0.29167, "from_high_reference": -0.162523, "from_low_reference": 0.090458 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1261.138333, "fair_value_reference": 1173.835189, "structural_low": 1123.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.010241, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.631579, "median_excess_return": 0.00971, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.118851, "worst_return": -0.120681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.047524, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.045602, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.166419, "worst_return": -0.093706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.02161, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.053081, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.270403, "worst_return": -0.117737, "sufficient": true 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"Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.211776, "energy": 12.969608, "activity_lines": [ 1284.03, 1279.678364, 1248.053714, 1252.036495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1236.71, "volume": 1713552, "typical_volume": 1899404.45, "trend": 1270.172, "fair_value": 1167.639674, "relative_strength": -11.348255, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.091408, "energy": 6.054793, "activity_lines": [ 1262.457333, 1275.030545, 1248.658905, 1249.721677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1254.38, "volume": 1635229, "typical_volume": 1885052.4, "trend": 1266.699667, "fair_value": 1170.768248, "relative_strength": -10.388318, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.520608, "energy": 10.290202, "activity_lines": [ 1252.881333, 1272.000182, 1251.222286, 1248.702839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1225.25, "volume": 3576464, "typical_volume": 1943022.25, "trend": 1261.138333, "fair_value": 1173.835189, "relative_strength": -15.021246, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.304741, "energy": 17.29366, "activity_lines": [ 1238.274, 1262.930364, 1250.822238, 1246.028667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }