{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48b4344b-040c-4e4a-8148-c76bc1f40fd6", "symbol": "300707", "name": "VT Industrial Technology Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.012, "architecture_energy": 60.647, "architecture_maturity": 82.59, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.05, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 11.52, "deceleration": 60.72, "rotation_down": 52.87, "downward_expansion": 84.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.342, 11.426545, 12.373636, 13.443832 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.95, "trend_reference": 15.010628, "distance_from_trend": -0.203897, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.594453, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.181196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.170247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.357527, "excess_performance": -0.364927, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203897, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085239, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.181196, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221984, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241702, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050528, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.357527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.305774, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22015165, "relative_activity": 1.01584, "balance": 0.305774, "dry_up": 0.984208, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083295, "annualized_volatility": 0.370616, "from_high_reference": -0.501668, "from_low_reference": 0.195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.010628, "fair_value_reference": 14.594453, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.000459, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005868, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.396028, "worst_return": -0.167198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.043267, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.023428, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.258408, "worst_return": -0.065315, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122341, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.141459, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.558939, "worst_return": -0.288424, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-24", "close": 10.64, "volume": 24346958, "typical_volume": 22108581.4, "trend": 15.333294, "fair_value": 14.670651, "relative_strength": -30.9912, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.88288, "energy": 77.806522, "activity_lines": [ 10.984, 11.482197, 12.74972, 13.901504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.45, "volume": 18651197, "typical_volume": 21694116.25, "trend": 15.160628, "fair_value": 14.620685, "relative_strength": -24.075484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.245489, "energy": 65.924736, "activity_lines": [ 11.081333, 11.3829, 12.525059, 13.650969 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.95, "volume": 22015165, "typical_volume": 21671887.5, "trend": 15.010628, "fair_value": 14.594453, "relative_strength": -24.170247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.011904, "energy": 60.646859, "activity_lines": [ 11.342, 11.426545, 12.373636, 13.443832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }