{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48b76537-132c-43c1-b38f-a6b5a4847051", "symbol": "FGA", "name": "Figeac Aero Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Anonyme", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.624, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.139, "architecture_energy": 23.912, "architecture_maturity": 44.785, "architecture_confidence": 81.049, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 57.26, "deceleration": 86.48, "rotation_down": 27.95, "downward_expansion": 18.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.258667, 11.373455, 11.166714, 10.887312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.7, "trend_reference": 10.665667, "distance_from_trend": 0.096978, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.917436, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.477751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.53903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.193878, "excess_performance": 0.140566, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096978, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003764, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.477751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003522, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.00539, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012377, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.193878, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.581047, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76423, "relative_activity": 0.820978, "balance": 0.581047, "dry_up": 0.920698, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062985, "annualized_volatility": 0.432345, "from_high_reference": -0.103448, "from_low_reference": 0.297118 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.665667, "fair_value_reference": 7.917436, "structural_low": 9.02, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.027027, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": 0.017281, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.36413, "worst_return": -0.144105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.089904, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.059369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.319277, "worst_return": -0.165066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.034234, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009185, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.427711, "worst_return": -0.062009, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098901, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091633, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.144105, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056485, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-08", 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11.026667, 10.720909, 10.36519, 10.431591 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 10.68, "volume": 26337, "typical_volume": 127638.8, "trend": 10.583333, "fair_value": 7.588333, "relative_strength": -4.478971, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.844724, "energy": 33.224088, "activity_lines": [ 10.928, 10.762, 10.402714, 10.436172 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 11.96, "volume": 28374, "typical_volume": 125748.3, "trend": 10.595333, "fair_value": 7.633013, "relative_strength": 6.080841, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 47.937994, "energy": 51.396503, "activity_lines": [ 11.274667, 11.018364, 10.565571, 10.524989 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 11.78, "volume": 82283, "typical_volume": 121207.75, "trend": 10.608, "fair_value": 7.676667, "relative_strength": 5.111762, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.807554, "energy": 45.997076, "activity_lines": [ 11.48, 11.198182, 10.705524, 10.601419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 12.18, "volume": 39371, "typical_volume": 111763.55, "trend": 10.622333, "fair_value": 7.721154, "relative_strength": 7.003591, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.001106, "energy": 68.576121, "activity_lines": [ 11.744, 11.426727, 10.874143, 10.702839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.34, "volume": 146134, "typical_volume": 102890.55, "trend": 10.647, "fair_value": 7.760769, "relative_strength": 1.663488, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.589773, "energy": 63.707667, "activity_lines": [ 11.690667, 11.462909, 10.950286, 10.74914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.18, "volume": 83844, "typical_volume": 101771.35, "trend": 10.658, "fair_value": 7.8, "relative_strength": 0.316184, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.472905, "energy": 45.74919, "activity_lines": [ 11.554667, 11.444364, 11.009571, 10.783527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.84, "volume": 106777, "typical_volume": 99543.9, "trend": 10.656, "fair_value": 7.836795, "relative_strength": -3.024364, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.599944, "energy": 25.848918, "activity_lines": [ 11.272, 11.36, 11.033476, 10.795269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.04, "volume": 75779, "typical_volume": 95978.35, "trend": 10.657333, "fair_value": 7.874615, "relative_strength": -2.790411, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.783757, "energy": 21.568759, "activity_lines": [ 11.130667, 11.310182, 11.072905, 10.820043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.7, "volume": 76423, "typical_volume": 93087.75, "trend": 10.665667, "fair_value": 7.917436, "relative_strength": 0.53903, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.139477, "energy": 23.911981, "activity_lines": [ 11.258667, 11.373455, 11.166714, 10.887312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }