{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48b81a45-34bc-469d-a04d-d03f9e3a0431", "symbol": "APTA", "name": "Aptahem AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.243, "architecture_energy": 14.376, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 60.763, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.84, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 16.72, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 26.86, "downward_expansion": 53.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.628267, 0.612182, 0.623419, 0.663297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.62, "trend_reference": 0.7372, "distance_from_trend": -0.15898, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.645487, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.829927, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -42.740026, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.287356, "excess_performance": -0.348851, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15898, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166315, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.829927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.4274, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055774, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.287356, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.895753, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150496, "relative_activity": 1.058476, "balance": 0.895753, "dry_up": 0.358905, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.261042, "annualized_volatility": 0.801275, "from_high_reference": -0.741667, "from_low_reference": 0.469194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.7372, "fair_value_reference": 3.645487, "structural_low": 0.422, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": -0.05484, "positive_rate": 0.325, "directional_follow_through": 0.675, "median_excess_return": -0.042625, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 1.622951, "worst_return": -0.363636, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.283563, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.290096, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.44878, "worst_return": -0.61674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.311258, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.388928, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.207729, "worst_return": -0.777974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 0.5744, 0.605818, 0.648581, 0.714684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.63, "volume": 19149, "typical_volume": 144566.8, "trend": 0.7992, "fair_value": 4.046207, "relative_strength": -42.616792, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.836125, "energy": 35.135663, "activity_lines": [ 0.588267, 0.605964, 0.641457, 0.70329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.58, "volume": 19306, "typical_volume": 142420.25, "trend": 0.788333, "fair_value": 3.951813, "relative_strength": -45.913701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.726866, "energy": 33.611081, "activity_lines": [ 0.5864, 0.598291, 0.631105, 0.689148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.65, "volume": 13225, "typical_volume": 140140.0, "trend": 0.772667, "fair_value": 3.855801, "relative_strength": -39.572098, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.823171, "energy": 20.722717, "activity_lines": [ 0.608533, 0.604, 0.628476, 0.680224 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.646, "volume": 21092, "typical_volume": 136633.3, "trend": 0.7557, "fair_value": 3.741175, "relative_strength": -39.881004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.225411, "energy": 15.394617, "activity_lines": [ 0.6276, 0.610509, 0.626552, 0.672052 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.62, "volume": 150496, "typical_volume": 142181.8, "trend": 0.7372, "fair_value": 3.645487, "relative_strength": -42.740026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.243306, "energy": 14.376438, "activity_lines": [ 0.628267, 0.612182, 0.623419, 0.663297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }