{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48b86301-6737-47d0-b6c3-3b35b8fd8d96", "symbol": "SAGA-D", "name": "AB Sagax (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 64.846, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.677, "architecture_energy": 45.213, "architecture_maturity": 13.546, "architecture_confidence": 89.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.5, "rotation_up": 17.25, "upward_expansion": 6.55, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 55.73, "downward_expansion": 77.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 33.163333, 33.215566, 33.712771, 33.819593 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 33.200001, "trend_reference": 33.8543, "distance_from_trend": -0.019327, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.543101, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.123782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.785354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016058, "excess_performance": -0.077553, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.019327, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.123782, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086181, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117854, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064174, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016058, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.927973, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2290497, "relative_activity": 1.11066, "balance": 0.927973, "dry_up": 1.192658, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017528, "annualized_volatility": 0.128699, "from_high_reference": -0.061112, "from_low_reference": 0.043787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.8543, "fair_value_reference": 29.543101, "structural_low": 32.067061, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 3.4e-05, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.021212, "worst_return": -0.007619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.003238, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.014635, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.007619, "worst_return": -0.014095, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.0215, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.0789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065028, "worst_return": -0.022027, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.907646, "energy": 54.907068, "activity_lines": [ 33.116666, 33.40143, 33.858196, 33.904654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 1896772, "typical_volume": 2071409.25, "trend": 33.859225, "fair_value": 29.472854, "relative_strength": -10.399581, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.135709, "energy": 42.288342, "activity_lines": [ 33.153333, 33.291092, 33.784428, 33.862123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.200001, "volume": 2290497, "typical_volume": 2062283.8, "trend": 33.8543, "fair_value": 29.543101, "relative_strength": -11.785354, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.677065, "energy": 45.212589, "activity_lines": [ 33.163333, 33.215566, 33.712771, 33.819593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }