{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48c09295-3d84-4e14-8d19-f9c8fbfda851", "symbol": "UGI", "name": "UGI Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.38, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.235, "architecture_energy": 17.344, "architecture_maturity": 8.492, "architecture_confidence": 70.698, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.74, "rotation_up": 34.59, "upward_expansion": 38.46, "deceleration": 33.16, "rotation_down": 27.08, "downward_expansion": 37.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.763333, 35.62868, 35.290896, 35.470647 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 34.18, "trend_reference": 35.894607, "distance_from_trend": -0.047768, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 28.258364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209553, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.52502, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.058782, "excess_performance": -0.184406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047768, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008357, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209553, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035666, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13525, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052942, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.058782, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.382425, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7076178, "relative_activity": 0.895728, "balance": 1.382425, "dry_up": 0.790771, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.051675, "annualized_volatility": 0.250028, "from_high_reference": -0.155544, "from_low_reference": 0.114882 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.894607, "fair_value_reference": 28.258364, "structural_low": 31.308306, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008916, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.086606, "worst_return": -0.072435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027204, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.028077, "worst_return": -0.088315, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.080682, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.218861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.032923, "worst_return": -0.219151, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 37.33, "volume": 5396662, "typical_volume": 8112421.65, "trend": 35.98922, "fair_value": 28.074452, "relative_strength": -1.799373, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.89846, "energy": 27.801382, "activity_lines": [ 36.425333, 35.702903, 35.338636, 35.577377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 36.12, "volume": 6985273, "typical_volume": 8067865.25, "trend": 35.965109, "fair_value": 28.17194, "relative_strength": -5.735331, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.060536, "energy": 28.783009, "activity_lines": [ 36.440667, 35.849927, 35.40659, 35.585815 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.18, "volume": 7076178, "typical_volume": 7899918.95, "trend": 35.894607, "fair_value": 28.258364, "relative_strength": -13.52502, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.235309, "energy": 17.344077, "activity_lines": [ 35.763333, 35.62868, 35.290896, 35.470647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }