{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48c1263c-9229-42b6-bfa1-450c5df9d166", "symbol": "300648", "name": "Fujian Nebula Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.546, "architecture_energy": 62.739, "architecture_maturity": 34.064, "architecture_confidence": 73.549, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 11.89, "upward_expansion": 10.52, "deceleration": 51.36, "rotation_down": 74.94, "downward_expansion": 86.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.545999, 37.706364, 42.455095, 45.843183 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 40.299999, "trend_reference": 50.080666, "distance_from_trend": -0.195298, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.846923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.226903, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.354608, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267406, "excess_performance": -0.274806, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.195298, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.226903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.347513, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.213546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081574, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267406, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.167374, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17991373, "relative_activity": 1.50287, "balance": 1.167374, "dry_up": 1.504027, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.132468, "annualized_volatility": 0.558165, "from_high_reference": -0.38, "from_low_reference": 0.519608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.080666, "fair_value_reference": 32.846923, "structural_low": 26.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.030585, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.000601, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.347069, "worst_return": -0.278893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.128803, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.052513, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.781227, "worst_return": -0.363231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001423, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.136807, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.392168, "worst_return": -0.39871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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-37.61333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.89924, "energy": 93.883733, "activity_lines": [ 35.780001, 39.853091, 44.512619, 47.717506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.349998, "volume": 15113729, "typical_volume": 11779750.9, "trend": 50.456667, "fair_value": 32.793397, "relative_strength": -33.868672, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.773791, "energy": 89.067379, "activity_lines": [ 34.057333, 37.847273, 43.044667, 46.498452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 17991373, "typical_volume": 11971340.8, "trend": 50.080666, "fair_value": 32.846923, "relative_strength": -21.354608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.546126, "energy": 62.738591, "activity_lines": [ 35.545999, 37.706364, 42.455095, 45.843183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }