{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48c24a3c-c823-4835-a28f-98d41ed0f66e", "symbol": "UPR", "name": "Uniphar plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.883, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -3.378, "architecture_energy": 17.148, "architecture_maturity": 63.243, "architecture_confidence": 82.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.15, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 45.73, "deceleration": 87.82, "rotation_down": 41.13, "downward_expansion": 28.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 375.066667, 384.181818, 384.380337, 375.954091 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 365.0, "trend_reference": 363.760731, "distance_from_trend": 0.003407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 267.354864, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.365227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.669432, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.04889, "excess_performance": -0.002345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003407, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073388, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.365227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071754, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.036694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.06982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 286687, "relative_activity": 0.425171, "balance": 2.06982, "dry_up": 0.469773, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050927, "annualized_volatility": 0.187911, "from_high_reference": -0.130952, "from_low_reference": 0.241543 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 363.760731, "fair_value_reference": 267.354864, "structural_low": 309.988398, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024972, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.037388, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.031818, "worst_return": -0.092511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.086957, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.119675, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.045732, "worst_return": -0.103848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.030223, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.067936, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.067073, "worst_return": -0.08285, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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7.044359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.496124, "energy": 38.018968, "activity_lines": [ 396.733333, 398.218182, 382.731135, 371.212529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 386.0, "volume": 90209, "typical_volume": 680307.95, "trend": 356.792927, "fair_value": 265.116577, "relative_strength": 4.307493, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.130322, "energy": 28.984639, "activity_lines": [ 392.0, 396.654545, 384.250673, 373.271074 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 383.0, "volume": 389357, "typical_volume": 676059.05, "trend": 359.5933, "fair_value": 265.911821, "relative_strength": 2.191571, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.271957, "energy": 22.275354, "activity_lines": [ 388.266667, 394.254545, 385.3511, 374.961853 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 372.0, "volume": 500793, "typical_volume": 678710.7, "trend": 362.027007, "fair_value": 266.655779, "relative_strength": -1.723733, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.01821, "energy": 20.382946, "activity_lines": [ 382.133333, 389.709091, 385.260987, 375.762285 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 365.0, "volume": 286687, "typical_volume": 674285.85, "trend": 363.760731, "fair_value": 267.354864, "relative_strength": -3.669432, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.377619, "energy": 17.147696, "activity_lines": [ 375.066667, 384.181818, 384.380337, 375.954091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }