{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48c68b40-1339-4d14-9717-91e8b76a7501", "symbol": "5871", "name": "Chailease Holding Company Limited", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.088, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.655, "architecture_energy": 37.736, "architecture_maturity": 37.634, "architecture_confidence": 75.788, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.56, "rotation_up": 53.78, "upward_expansion": 78.23, "deceleration": 54.44, "rotation_down": 17.93, "downward_expansion": 4.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 110.871676, 110.005076, 108.473062, 106.756452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 111.5, "trend_reference": 104.163807, "distance_from_trend": 0.070429, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 118.593646, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.059815, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -22.93908, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.139311, "excess_performance": -0.302061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070429, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040727, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.059815, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136714, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.229391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132578, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139311, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.707754, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32659922, "relative_activity": 0.696677, "balance": 1.707754, "dry_up": 0.929133, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058371, "annualized_volatility": 0.307281, "from_high_reference": -0.039135, "from_low_reference": 0.232005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 104.163807, "fair_value_reference": 118.593646, "structural_low": 90.50291, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007872, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.003033, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.143777, "worst_return": -0.114447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.072846, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.13463, "worst_return": -0.220532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.124022, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.110389, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.229385, "worst_return": -0.141725, 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104.162081 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 111.381027, "volume": 46223605, "typical_volume": 45227921.4, "trend": 102.743949, "fair_value": 119.850194, "relative_strength": -21.50544, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.17762, "energy": 32.617272, "activity_lines": [ 108.491644, 107.881568, 106.540978, 104.754389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 111.847054, "volume": 61977230, "typical_volume": 46494457.9, "trend": 103.054635, "fair_value": 119.513517, "relative_strength": -21.935095, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.948964, "energy": 41.122117, "activity_lines": [ 109.858663, 108.864466, 107.222268, 105.341686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 111.5, "volume": 53670255, "typical_volume": 47443231.95, "trend": 103.30715, "fair_value": 119.214375, "relative_strength": -20.166229, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.748756, "energy": 43.443544, "activity_lines": [ 110.737174, 109.547013, 107.786177, 105.886548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.0, "volume": 25921946, "typical_volume": 47177116.55, "trend": 103.709346, "fair_value": 118.894237, "relative_strength": -22.900806, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.301028, "energy": 43.880334, "activity_lines": [ 110.401597, 109.628805, 108.033752, 106.253829 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 111.5, "volume": 32659922, "typical_volume": 46879568.8, "trend": 104.163807, "fair_value": 118.593646, "relative_strength": -22.93908, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.655393, "energy": 37.736169, "activity_lines": [ 110.871676, 110.005076, 108.473062, 106.756452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }