{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48c9579c-e290-4d3f-92ec-96754b9fde9d", "symbol": "600693", "name": "Fujian Dongbai (Group) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.168, "architecture_energy": 32.03, "architecture_maturity": 89.89, "architecture_confidence": 81.389, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.19, "rotation_up": 27.41, "upward_expansion": 16.55, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 36.39, "downward_expansion": 66.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.790064, 8.512684, 9.086307, 9.844605 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.61, "trend_reference": 11.256089, "distance_from_trend": -0.14624, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.312872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.522287, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.469776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.339973, "excess_performance": -0.296769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14624, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102886, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.522287, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.452925, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.054698, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183478, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.339973, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.225911, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 428629081, "relative_activity": 2.036486, "balance": 1.225911, "dry_up": 1.684416, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.125003, "annualized_volatility": 0.623619, "from_high_reference": -0.579982, "from_low_reference": 0.697131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.256089, "fair_value_reference": 6.312872, "structural_low": 7.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.00495, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.004835, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.576, "worst_return": -0.143293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005284, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.0192, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.237333, "worst_return": -0.128866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.060895, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.134769, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.695305, "worst_return": -0.101366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049064, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.016949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.120661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157627, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-30", 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"energy": 80.832223, "activity_lines": [ 8.122331, 8.722515, 9.662643, 10.747724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.66, "volume": 284210400, "typical_volume": 176778426.5, "trend": 12.261423, "fair_value": 6.216309, "relative_strength": -19.949082, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.361027, "energy": 71.520668, "activity_lines": [ 7.936152, 8.428467, 9.395726, 10.435289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.53, "volume": 183561516, "typical_volume": 177734283.6, "trend": 11.944423, "fair_value": 6.240566, "relative_strength": -22.52696, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.186151, "energy": 66.373174, "activity_lines": [ 7.779173, 8.182963, 9.144285, 10.130036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.44, "volume": 521707628, "typical_volume": 198635405.0, "trend": 11.529756, "fair_value": 6.276882, "relative_strength": -3.937037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.663708, "energy": 48.645398, "activity_lines": [ 8.312858, 8.331824, 9.100558, 9.96846 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.61, "volume": 428629081, "typical_volume": 210474807.25, "trend": 11.256089, "fair_value": 6.312872, "relative_strength": -5.469776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.168416, "energy": 32.030084, "activity_lines": [ 8.790064, 8.512684, 9.086307, 9.844605 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }