{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48cdcaea-2757-4f3e-9c4f-457735654979", "symbol": "603169", "name": "Lanzhou LS Heavy Equipment Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.875, "architecture_energy": 63.369, "architecture_maturity": 69.673, "architecture_confidence": 95.84, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.43, "rotation_down": 54.92, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.566, 6.678545, 7.315238, 8.070667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.81, "trend_reference": 9.113667, "distance_from_trend": -0.252771, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.977372, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.023988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.140702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.345821, "excess_performance": -0.302617, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.252771, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.023988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.325952, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.241407, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.143262, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.345821, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.540181, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116078899, "relative_activity": 1.313318, "balance": 0.540181, "dry_up": 1.094602, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097594, "annualized_volatility": 0.557848, "from_high_reference": -0.519746, "from_low_reference": 0.188482 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.113667, "fair_value_reference": 6.977372, "structural_low": 5.73, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.021277, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021353, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.171021, "worst_return": -0.247475, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.058039, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.015855, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.382423, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057185, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.009281, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.351544, "worst_return": -0.246869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.32, "volume": 78700633, "typical_volume": 128689110.15, "trend": 9.637667, "fair_value": 7.000385, "relative_strength": -31.785343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.880918, "energy": 88.732531, "activity_lines": [ 6.858, 7.306, 8.131524, 8.838172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.96, "volume": 72623544, "typical_volume": 126828741.35, "trend": 9.493667, "fair_value": 6.990897, "relative_strength": -31.335719, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.694307, "energy": 91.461902, "activity_lines": [ 6.486667, 6.984182, 7.842952, 8.600903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.08, "volume": 88244649, "typical_volume": 115015434.55, "trend": 9.363, "fair_value": 6.981795, "relative_strength": -30.52869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.827302, "energy": 90.103661, "activity_lines": [ 6.249333, 6.740545, 7.589952, 8.380667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.99, "volume": 110042741, "typical_volume": 105428391.65, "trend": 9.242, "fair_value": 6.979487, "relative_strength": -20.251546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.482707, "energy": 72.636408, "activity_lines": [ 6.438, 6.712364, 7.447333, 8.22757 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.81, "volume": 116078899, "typical_volume": 88385950.2, "trend": 9.113667, "fair_value": 6.977372, "relative_strength": -24.140702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.875102, "energy": 63.36901, "activity_lines": [ 6.566, 6.678545, 7.315238, 8.070667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }