{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48cf42f4-5585-490c-aa7c-7f56de9e6500", "symbol": "HOGS", "name": "WisdomTree Lean Hogs", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.185, "architecture_energy": 25.073, "architecture_maturity": 71.989, "architecture_confidence": 82.539, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.87, "rotation_up": 31.97, "upward_expansion": 22.7, "deceleration": 41.14, "rotation_down": 32.51, "downward_expansion": 56.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.341333, 26.335363, 26.398524, 26.840441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.225, "trend_reference": 27.490667, "distance_from_trend": -0.082416, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.054936, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.067638, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.018688, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.155366, "excess_performance": -0.326258, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082416, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012394, "read": "Falling" 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25.059999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.033157, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.003696, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.140787, "worst_return": -0.147942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.089512, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.023389, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.183574, "worst_return": -0.16077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042093, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.08436, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.366687, "worst_return": -0.050948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.359676, "energy": 67.332871, "activity_lines": [ 25.767, 26.027727, 26.765357, 27.284538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 26.365, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 2202.6, "trend": 27.717833, "fair_value": 27.02391, "relative_strength": -19.255759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.183613, "energy": 52.87979, "activity_lines": [ 25.963333, 26.028091, 26.665762, 27.195366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.34, "volume": 2332, "typical_volume": 2284.2, "trend": 27.669333, "fair_value": 27.031555, "relative_strength": -18.548227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.878532, "energy": 39.254436, "activity_lines": [ 26.112, 26.044091, 26.570333, 27.106473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.115, "volume": 1966, "typical_volume": 2291.3, "trend": 27.6515, "fair_value": 27.040176, "relative_strength": -14.57204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.3731, "energy": 24.196141, "activity_lines": [ 26.5, 26.225727, 26.559786, 27.07071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.955, "volume": 540, "typical_volume": 2292.5, "trend": 27.644, "fair_value": 27.051923, "relative_strength": -11.441124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.842445, "energy": 21.065874, "activity_lines": [ 27.058333, 26.549273, 26.639071, 27.09029 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 1003, "typical_volume": 2321.65, "trend": 27.593667, "fair_value": 27.055064, "relative_strength": -17.294054, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.263203, "energy": 25.227569, "activity_lines": [ 26.860666, 26.527091, 26.554405, 26.993258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.225, "volume": 2864, "typical_volume": 2459.75, "trend": 27.490667, "fair_value": 27.054936, "relative_strength": -22.018688, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.184627, "energy": 25.07313, "activity_lines": [ 26.341333, 26.335363, 26.398524, 26.840441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }