{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48d39540-086a-4c3e-89de-9021a6bd5292", "symbol": "STMI", "name": "STMicroelectronics N.V.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -1.957, "architecture_energy": 30.679, "architecture_maturity": 71.046, "architecture_confidence": 69.42, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.33, "rotation_up": 14.0, "upward_expansion": 48.64, "deceleration": 88.0, "rotation_down": 50.95, "downward_expansion": 33.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.894666, 54.192843, 54.618344, 49.698241 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.0, "trend_reference": 42.644976, "distance_from_trend": 0.125572, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.110296, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.494848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.504225, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.969257, "excess_performance": 0.795011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125572, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.399052, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.494848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094644, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.195042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.438245, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.969257, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 19.649463, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 279, "relative_activity": 0.025084, "balance": 19.649463, "dry_up": 0.034412, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115418, "annualized_volatility": 0.543123, "from_high_reference": -0.29401, "from_low_reference": 1.60847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 42.644976, "fair_value_reference": 32.110296, "structural_low": 25.459999, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.056732, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.065814, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.208168, "worst_return": -0.130797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.073703, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052357, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.268403, "worst_return": -0.068595, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.027406, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.053919, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.143426, "worst_return": -0.019096, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "orange", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.351417, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.089562, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.211161, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.150518, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047887, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.333854, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003694, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.891505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022364, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 40.565174, "volume": 650, "typical_volume": 657.8, "trend": 42.587955, "fair_value": 35.020051, "relative_strength": 5.59939, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.827834, 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"2026-07-17", "close": 53.580002, "volume": 515, "typical_volume": 13360.5, "trend": 40.294588, "fair_value": 32.066174, "relative_strength": 42.789434, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.266636, "energy": 49.593414, "activity_lines": [ 59.799999, 61.34614, 55.138248, 48.56804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.950001, "volume": 445, "typical_volume": 12640.4, "trend": 41.121853, "fair_value": 32.064999, "relative_strength": 22.379007, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.372418, "energy": 30.276336, "activity_lines": [ 54.878, 58.827562, 55.0562, 48.997421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.849998, "volume": 292, "typical_volume": 11290.85, "trend": 41.865439, "fair_value": 32.074955, "relative_strength": 18.61484, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.172068, "energy": 30.183529, "activity_lines": [ 50.971333, 56.205539, 54.776103, 49.302463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.0, "volume": 279, "typical_volume": 11122.45, "trend": 42.644976, "fair_value": 32.110296, "relative_strength": 19.504225, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.957337, "energy": 30.678576, "activity_lines": [ 48.894666, 54.192843, 54.618344, 49.698241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }