{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48d61341-0d28-43a6-9180-3a1beee1b8f9", "symbol": "AVAV", "name": "AeroVironment Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.721, "architecture_energy": 25.895, "architecture_maturity": 74.122, "architecture_confidence": 71.256, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.81, "rotation_up": 25.46, "upward_expansion": 11.71, "deceleration": 62.48, "rotation_down": 42.7, "downward_expansion": 70.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 160.576, 160.231818, 167.227905, 178.075484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 186.73, "trend_reference": 202.927333, "distance_from_trend": -0.079818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 190.023814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017334, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -33.248211, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.273989, "excess_performance": -0.461443, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.162602, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.332482, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119555, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273989, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835656, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6778536, "relative_activity": 0.964768, "balance": 0.835656, "dry_up": 0.946067, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154346, "annualized_volatility": 0.886543, "from_high_reference": -0.553128, "from_low_reference": 0.381139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 202.927333, "fair_value_reference": 190.023814, "structural_low": 135.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.021691, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.024231, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.422212, "worst_return": -0.311388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057261, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.010536, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.802775, "worst_return": -0.369388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.352671, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.318593, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.598497, "worst_return": -0.405498, "sufficient": false }, { 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144.58, "volume": 10668301, "typical_volume": 8278886.7, "trend": 219.306667, "fair_value": 188.459519, "relative_strength": -50.882165, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.895343, "energy": 49.310527, "activity_lines": [ 160.674, 168.067273, 175.592714, 192.833054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 142.2, "volume": 7087878, "typical_volume": 8442991.4, "trend": 215.946333, "fair_value": 188.75266, "relative_strength": -48.902351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.084978, "energy": 54.012151, "activity_lines": [ 153.833333, 162.880182, 171.443619, 187.85843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 149.51, "volume": 7509187, "typical_volume": 7559545.3, "trend": 212.43, "fair_value": 189.101891, "relative_strength": -44.699713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.255772, "energy": 45.227521, "activity_lines": [ 151.321333, 159.496545, 168.514762, 183.572215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 149.37, "volume": 5212965, "typical_volume": 7115729.5, "trend": 208.869333, "fair_value": 189.440032, "relative_strength": -44.365243, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.547116, "energy": 50.033295, "activity_lines": [ 150.102667, 156.241818, 165.954905, 179.503828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 186.73, "volume": 6778536, "typical_volume": 7026080.65, "trend": 202.927333, "fair_value": 190.023814, "relative_strength": -33.248211, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.720578, "energy": 25.894501, "activity_lines": [ 160.576, 160.231818, 167.227905, 178.075484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }