{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48d90d51-a287-454b-a652-6b5a34d0acdd", "symbol": "ULBI", "name": "Ultralife Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 87.501, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.232, "architecture_energy": 52.965, "architecture_maturity": 4.259, "architecture_confidence": 88.353, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.42, "rotation_up": 15.73, "upward_expansion": 13.18, "deceleration": 36.96, "rotation_down": 64.27, "downward_expansion": 86.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.685333, 5.833545, 6.16181, 6.257591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.35, "trend_reference": 6.3295, "distance_from_trend": 0.003239, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.699968, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175321, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.714891, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.001577, "excess_performance": -0.185876, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003239, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175321, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043865, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127149, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001577, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.240366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 248036, "relative_activity": 1.3402, "balance": 1.240366, "dry_up": 0.941547, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115154, "annualized_volatility": 0.613145, "from_high_reference": -0.230303, "from_low_reference": 0.295918 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.3295, "fair_value_reference": 7.699968, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.007407, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.516129, "median_excess_return": -0.014474, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.515909, "worst_return": -0.254125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033097, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.057417, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.030374, "worst_return": -0.452685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.104019, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.011248, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.543018, "worst_return": -0.52967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.154396, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122739, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.235499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079877, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.176296, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", 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6.551595, 6.482656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.85, "volume": 144945, "typical_volume": 220488.05, "trend": 6.352167, "fair_value": 7.743686, "relative_strength": -23.424761, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.532984, "energy": 30.117179, "activity_lines": [ 6.118667, 6.320636, 6.491905, 6.450473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.51, "volume": 163054, "typical_volume": 225753.95, "trend": 6.3445, "fair_value": 7.746955, "relative_strength": -23.68333, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.473371, "energy": 46.149066, "activity_lines": [ 5.875667, 6.165818, 6.399929, 6.39614 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.3, "volume": 127335, "typical_volume": 220981.35, "trend": 6.329167, "fair_value": 7.731442, "relative_strength": -24.346023, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.72684, "energy": 67.867192, "activity_lines": [ 5.634, 5.981182, 6.288714, 6.328753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.19, "volume": 158598, "typical_volume": 197774.4, "trend": 6.313833, "fair_value": 7.712596, "relative_strength": -25.415575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.316738, "energy": 71.410949, "activity_lines": [ 5.433, 5.790545, 6.166786, 6.255258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.35, "volume": 248036, "typical_volume": 185073.9, "trend": 6.3295, "fair_value": 7.699968, "relative_strength": -12.714891, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.231555, "energy": 52.965077, "activity_lines": [ 5.685333, 5.833545, 6.16181, 6.257591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }