{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48df1413-d0ae-4128-8dad-5139144fa379", "symbol": "CKI", "name": "Clarke Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.875, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 0.602, "architecture_energy": 7.297, "architecture_maturity": 10.677, "architecture_confidence": 38.662, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 72.29, "rotation_up": 24.38, "upward_expansion": 29.86, "deceleration": 72.61, "rotation_down": 27.62, "downward_expansion": 17.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.343333, 23.164727, 23.966, 23.863957 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.299999, "trend_reference": 23.435333, "distance_from_trend": -0.005775, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.663526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07554, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.673663, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.075219, "excess_performance": -0.045202, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07554, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20592, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.146737, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.09916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.794562, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9300, "relative_activity": 0.782828, "balance": 1.794562, "dry_up": 1.62037, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065566, "annualized_volatility": 0.345728, "from_high_reference": -0.293939, "from_low_reference": 0.242004 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.435333, "fair_value_reference": 21.663526, "structural_low": 21.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.072941, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.072075, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.225806, "worst_return": -0.054825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.116432, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.112117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228571, "worst_return": -0.032556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.169397, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.198006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.320238, "worst_return": -0.086022, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.371429, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.456125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56822, "worst_return": -0.054194, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005932, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.062234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049143, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012367, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.115044, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.034243, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073911, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.085271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.168167, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008089, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.21, "volume": 2700, "typical_volume": 20215.0, "trend": 12.889333, "fair_value": 10.080256, "relative_strength": 5.37234, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"fair_value": 21.34109, "relative_strength": -17.538812, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.130661, "energy": 32.090349, "activity_lines": [ 22.720667, 23.986545, 24.340476, 23.82529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.4, "volume": 32700, "typical_volume": 9385.0, "trend": 23.149667, "fair_value": 21.406154, "relative_strength": -15.879822, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.957049, "energy": 29.341708, "activity_lines": [ 22.928, 23.729818, 24.289476, 23.84529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.0, "volume": 14900, "typical_volume": 9815.0, "trend": 23.183, "fair_value": 21.468654, "relative_strength": -16.437776, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -16.990532, "energy": 31.171658, "activity_lines": [ 22.968667, 23.423091, 24.192952, 23.835634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.43, "volume": 30300, "typical_volume": 10770.0, "trend": 23.255667, "fair_value": 21.532628, "relative_strength": -14.339105, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.154496, "energy": 13.691362, "activity_lines": [ 23.169333, 23.26, 24.130143, 23.85157 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.49, "volume": 22500, "typical_volume": 11710.0, "trend": 23.342333, "fair_value": 21.598782, "relative_strength": -12.29547, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.451701, "energy": 6.943554, "activity_lines": [ 23.338, 23.186727, 24.061476, 23.866688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.299999, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 11880.0, "trend": 23.435333, "fair_value": 21.663526, "relative_strength": -14.673663, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.602072, "energy": 7.296845, "activity_lines": [ 23.343333, 23.164727, 23.966, 23.863957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }