{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48e0ddf7-303f-43a6-b830-4d37f4608feb", "symbol": "HERO", "name": "Evolve E-Gaming Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 89.96, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 8.168, "architecture_energy": 14.029, "architecture_maturity": 23.118, "architecture_confidence": 56.079, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.2, "rotation_up": 37.87, "upward_expansion": 32.87, "deceleration": 46.52, "rotation_down": 17.42, "downward_expansion": 43.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.379333, 36.989423, 36.843531, 37.185635 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 38.330002, "trend_reference": 38.051905, "distance_from_trend": 0.007308, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 36.007995, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064486, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.034337, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.019376, "excess_performance": -0.139797, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007308, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064486, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022496, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.190343, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069013, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.019376, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.256966, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2200, "relative_activity": 0.236559, "balance": 2.256966, "dry_up": 2.180108, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0282, "annualized_volatility": 0.185156, "from_high_reference": -0.22138, "from_low_reference": 0.095373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.051905, "fair_value_reference": 36.007995, "structural_low": 34.99265, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.064421, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.05899, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.006456, "worst_return": -0.107552, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.147226, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.143842, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.121086, "worst_return": -0.176607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.134608, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.15603, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.11756, "worst_return": -0.150353, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032159, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.168929, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.100831, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-31", 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37.450001, "volume": 1500, "typical_volume": 11170.0, "trend": 38.939744, "fair_value": 35.766708, "relative_strength": -21.421598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.024952, "energy": 30.189581, "activity_lines": [ 36.660768, 36.422929, 36.821266, 37.548129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.959999, "volume": 1100, "typical_volume": 10455.0, "trend": 38.717677, "fair_value": 35.823347, "relative_strength": -21.642276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.162391, "energy": 22.465157, "activity_lines": [ 36.868409, 36.524408, 36.788839, 37.420403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.09, "volume": 10400, "typical_volume": 6180.0, "trend": 38.461955, "fair_value": 35.873148, "relative_strength": -23.019704, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.487134, "energy": 30.777596, "activity_lines": [ 36.696836, 36.463347, 36.686539, 37.250876 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.349998, "volume": 67400, "typical_volume": 9415.0, "trend": 38.229278, "fair_value": 35.935632, "relative_strength": -19.296246, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.779849, "energy": 17.78553, "activity_lines": [ 36.950666, 36.643381, 36.71466, 37.179137 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.330002, "volume": 2200, "typical_volume": 9300.0, "trend": 38.051905, "fair_value": 36.007995, "relative_strength": -19.034337, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 8.167739, "energy": 14.029082, "activity_lines": [ 37.379333, 36.989423, 36.843531, 37.185635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }