{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48e4642c-c9f0-481e-ab4a-b6cd42be482d", "symbol": "SBND", "name": "COLUMBIA ETF TR I SHORT DURATION BD ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.608, "architecture_energy": 25.998, "architecture_maturity": 4.107, "architecture_confidence": 83.619, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.43, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 12.63, "deceleration": 47.67, "rotation_down": 54.95, "downward_expansion": 73.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.622037, 18.637768, 18.648681, 18.648213 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.675, "trend_reference": 18.649985, "distance_from_trend": 0.001341, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.469716, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.068993, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.379958, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000125, "excess_performance": -0.1255, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001341, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002553, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.068993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015379, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007027, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000125, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.137538, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 396278, "relative_activity": 0.9595, "balance": 1.137538, "dry_up": 1.307168, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005881, "annualized_volatility": 0.027814, "from_high_reference": -0.007386, "from_low_reference": 0.030364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.649985, "fair_value_reference": 17.469716, "structural_low": 18.327205, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008149, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.010404, "worst_return": -0.002347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.030183, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.043905, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048408, "worst_return": 0.011958, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.047374, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.100201, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.054266, "worst_return": 0.040481, "sufficient": false }, { 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18.649572, 18.659897, 18.656692, 18.654941 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.571166, "volume": 397523, "typical_volume": 401561.25, "trend": 18.646835, "fair_value": 17.433451, "relative_strength": -7.342383, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.671877, "energy": 22.484724, "activity_lines": [ 18.617544, 18.64472, 18.649851, 18.650047 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.591076, "volume": 844770, "typical_volume": 429076.55, "trend": 18.647666, "fair_value": 17.451168, "relative_strength": -7.95237, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.908347, "energy": 41.823674, "activity_lines": [ 18.601031, 18.633374, 18.645345, 18.64645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.675, "volume": 396278, "typical_volume": 413004.75, "trend": 18.649985, "fair_value": 17.469716, "relative_strength": -10.379958, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.608056, "energy": 25.998474, "activity_lines": [ 18.622037, 18.637768, 18.648681, 18.648213 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }