{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48e64073-ea6e-449f-b78a-3e3659100b4e", "symbol": "ASO", "name": "Academy Sports Outdoors\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.579, "architecture_energy": 37.003, "architecture_maturity": 33.471, "architecture_confidence": 90.118, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.62, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 4.86, "deceleration": 55.34, "rotation_down": 46.6, "downward_expansion": 75.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.552, 47.992112, 49.85935, 51.463508 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 48.13, "trend_reference": 53.507043, "distance_from_trend": -0.100492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 52.120802, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.319016, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.181319, "excess_performance": -0.368773, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005576, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076568, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107246, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19319, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070021, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.181319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4410978, "relative_activity": 0.645057, "balance": 0.640016, "dry_up": 0.827913, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091137, "annualized_volatility": 0.275888, "from_high_reference": -0.22478, "from_low_reference": 0.17518 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.507043, "fair_value_reference": 52.120802, "structural_low": 43.72, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.051256, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.024415, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.225312, "worst_return": -0.234409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.141716, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.085441, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.474732, "worst_return": -0.20915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.166291, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.078686, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.44271, "worst_return": -0.194458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"typical_volume": 7424052.45, "trend": 53.859559, "fair_value": 52.219349, "relative_strength": -18.224277, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.950469, "energy": 62.047413, "activity_lines": [ 47.304667, 48.594302, 50.668377, 52.237214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.45, "volume": 7042791, "typical_volume": 7340757.1, "trend": 53.712898, "fair_value": 52.156543, "relative_strength": -16.780174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.402057, "energy": 48.013353, "activity_lines": [ 47.28, 48.186676, 50.211088, 51.823694 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.13, "volume": 4410978, "typical_volume": 6838118.15, "trend": 53.507043, "fair_value": 52.120802, "relative_strength": -19.319016, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.578939, "energy": 37.003373, "activity_lines": [ 47.552, 47.992112, 49.85935, 51.463508 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }