{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48ea1d27-1ccf-456d-9b41-ba5b381207d7", "symbol": "JPHC", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi JPX-Nikkei 400", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.414, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.564, "architecture_energy": 39.165, "architecture_maturity": 57.902, "architecture_confidence": 71.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.19, "rotation_up": 44.38, "upward_expansion": 68.92, "deceleration": 82.62, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 16.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 203.673333, 203.698545, 201.086381, 197.92684 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 207.649994, "trend_reference": 193.892334, "distance_from_trend": 0.070955, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 148.090834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.40218, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.388367, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.153739, "excess_performance": 0.050871, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070955, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.40218, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000385, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.033884, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.153739, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.826453, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 378, "relative_activity": 0.511191, "balance": 0.826453, "dry_up": 0.344851, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02489, "annualized_volatility": 0.193261, "from_high_reference": -0.00812, "from_low_reference": 0.399636 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 193.892334, "fair_value_reference": 148.090834, "structural_low": 176.899994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.028314, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.006057, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.066184, "worst_return": -0.029336, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.051537, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.024209, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.155692, "worst_return": -0.072909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.104554, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.022871, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205039, "worst_return": -0.040281, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.201935, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.161393, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299147, "worst_return": -0.039111, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00881, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.075481, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056743, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030869, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010487, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025726, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081349, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017169, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.231739, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050028, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01962, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 111.739998, "volume": 210, "typical_volume": 243.15, "trend": 101.618666, "fair_value": 91.409615, "relative_strength": 14.665294, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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62.057113, "energy": 52.308447, "activity_lines": [ 203.166668, 202.680728, 198.555811, 195.533765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.199997, "volume": 46, "typical_volume": 826.75, "trend": 191.823334, "fair_value": 146.898206, "relative_strength": 3.68239, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.452934, "energy": 48.634067, "activity_lines": [ 203.15, 203.138546, 199.445715, 196.398754 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 200.600006, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 737.7, "trend": 192.741335, "fair_value": 147.465513, "relative_strength": 1.499182, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.008702, "energy": 32.275372, "activity_lines": [ 202.130002, 202.801456, 199.965049, 196.964991 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 207.649994, "volume": 378, "typical_volume": 739.45, "trend": 193.892334, "fair_value": 148.090834, "relative_strength": 3.388367, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.563847, "energy": 39.16482, "activity_lines": [ 203.673333, 203.698545, 201.086381, 197.92684 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }