{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48ecb373-4ff6-4a5a-8ac9-282075b4c15e", "symbol": "JEGA", "name": "JPM Global Equity Premium Income Active UCITS ETF - USD (acc)", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.217, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.1, "architecture_energy": 83.403, "architecture_maturity": 12.852, "architecture_confidence": 58.766, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.33, "rotation_up": 84.09, "upward_expansion": 96.26, "deceleration": 39.38, "rotation_down": 8.58, "downward_expansion": 18.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.627334, 27.371273, 26.969667, 26.929409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 27.875, "trend_reference": 26.915333, "distance_from_trend": 0.035655, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.98275, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.072827, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.346503, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.033173, "excess_performance": -0.137719, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.035655, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.072827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036447, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.206355, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6893, "relative_activity": 0.547948, "balance": 1.206355, "dry_up": 0.584237, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015122, "annualized_volatility": 0.095975, "from_high_reference": -0.009593, "from_low_reference": 0.090358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.915333, "fair_value_reference": 25.98275, "structural_low": 25.655001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.022936, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.001972, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.022936, "worst_return": 0.022936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00346, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015189, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004695, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036304, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": 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26.694151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.25, "volume": 11328, "typical_volume": 16330.55, "trend": 26.765333, "fair_value": 25.935147, "relative_strength": -11.744067, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.26876, "energy": 47.761819, "activity_lines": [ 27.028, 26.755909, 26.640786, 26.727559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.379999, "volume": 5617, "typical_volume": 16090.3, "trend": 26.796667, "fair_value": 25.945693, "relative_strength": -9.751597, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.971967, "energy": 60.598535, "activity_lines": [ 27.199333, 26.908727, 26.699429, 26.767215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.575001, "volume": 12630, "typical_volume": 16131.2, "trend": 26.836333, "fair_value": 25.9575, "relative_strength": -8.676378, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.963654, "energy": 69.102019, "activity_lines": [ 27.378333, 27.069091, 26.779143, 26.81743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.575001, "volume": 4258, "typical_volume": 13006.5, "trend": 26.878, "fair_value": 25.969137, "relative_strength": -8.98644, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.172025, "energy": 65.038458, "activity_lines": [ 27.474, 27.202637, 26.859834, 26.865086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.875, "volume": 6893, "typical_volume": 12579.65, "trend": 26.915333, "fair_value": 25.98275, "relative_strength": -10.346503, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.100447, "energy": 83.402682, "activity_lines": [ 27.627334, 27.371273, 26.969667, 26.929409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }