{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48edeab0-ef03-455e-987b-3241e2963053", "symbol": "MADHUCON", "name": "Madhucon Projects Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 90.677, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 16.977, "architecture_energy": 23.188, "architecture_maturity": 63.088, "architecture_confidence": 71.219, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.57, "rotation_up": 21.69, "upward_expansion": 56.07, "deceleration": 88.12, "rotation_down": 46.31, "downward_expansion": 24.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.33, 5.568545, 5.552238, 5.374753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.29, "trend_reference": 5.214667, "distance_from_trend": 0.014446, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.035641, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.341683, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.835232, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.05169, "excess_performance": 0.095399, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014446, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04101, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.341683, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.113774, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092359, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.05169, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.251182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 104708, "relative_activity": 0.785217, "balance": 0.251182, "dry_up": 0.974397, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102516, "annualized_volatility": 0.562201, "from_high_reference": -0.381287, "from_low_reference": 0.465374 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.214667, "fair_value_reference": 8.035641, "structural_low": 3.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.470588, "median_excess_return": 0.008249, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.690047, "worst_return": -0.290323, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009615, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.020864, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.282412, "worst_return": -0.251366, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.396364, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.265316, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.971154, "worst_return": -0.565217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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{ "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.068493, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.156164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.228482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2425, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", 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5.32228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.09, "volume": 46418, "typical_volume": 148454.25, "trend": 5.327667, "fair_value": 8.035, "relative_strength": 4.403447, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.296931, "energy": 71.104347, "activity_lines": [ 6.068, 5.870545, 5.539381, 5.371419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.46, "volume": 244508, "typical_volume": 155992.85, "trend": 5.305333, "fair_value": 8.036667, "relative_strength": -6.415029, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.19137, "energy": 48.965346, "activity_lines": [ 5.89, 5.811636, 5.563238, 5.379957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.31, "volume": 129057, "typical_volume": 149147.95, "trend": 5.274333, "fair_value": 8.037372, "relative_strength": -6.464655, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.692753, "energy": 20.191576, "activity_lines": [ 5.665333, 5.738364, 5.569333, 5.380258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.14, "volume": 41467, "typical_volume": 143882.75, "trend": 5.241, "fair_value": 8.036667, "relative_strength": -11.228703, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.87361, "energy": 17.433003, "activity_lines": [ 5.440667, 5.636909, 5.554857, 5.371591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.29, "volume": 104708, "typical_volume": 133349.2, "trend": 5.214667, "fair_value": 8.035641, "relative_strength": -8.835232, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.977246, "energy": 23.187556, "activity_lines": [ 5.33, 5.568545, 5.552238, 5.374753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }