{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48f371f8-48da-483e-b3f6-a50cceb4c161", "symbol": "600768", "name": "Ningbo Fubang Jingye Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 60.689, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.672, "architecture_energy": 73.642, "architecture_maturity": 12.417, "architecture_confidence": 81.431, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.12, "rotation_up": 11.05, "upward_expansion": 17.08, "deceleration": 37.66, "rotation_down": 70.86, "downward_expansion": 90.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.843139, 14.309599, 15.40407, 15.938283 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14.68, "trend_reference": 16.406223, "distance_from_trend": -0.105218, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.222831, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.308048, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.669375, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17713, "excess_performance": -0.133926, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.105218, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028345, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.308048, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.479303, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.288493, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17713, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.312498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16263049, "relative_activity": 0.67499, "balance": 0.312498, "dry_up": 0.794392, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094321, "annualized_volatility": 0.405628, "from_high_reference": -0.257836, "from_low_reference": 0.313059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.406223, "fair_value_reference": 11.222831, "structural_low": 11.815177, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.033713, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030276, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.25431, "worst_return": -0.168552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08172, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.088655, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.404834, "worst_return": -0.220259, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.126124, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.148241, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.458002, "worst_return": -0.222092, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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11.081724, "relative_strength": 1.086509, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.383009, "energy": 51.98395, "activity_lines": [ 15.448172, 16.341003, 16.84843, 16.772743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.700438, "volume": 4397719, "typical_volume": 26458571.75, "trend": 16.325765, "fair_value": 11.11717, "relative_strength": 3.997643, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.470338, "energy": 53.256259, "activity_lines": [ 15.467484, 16.107764, 16.713936, 16.737561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.152517, "volume": 19333604, "typical_volume": 25907780.35, "trend": 16.376516, "fair_value": 11.15043, "relative_strength": 1.285857, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.957081, "energy": 47.630369, "activity_lines": [ 15.343459, 15.801623, 16.5344, 16.661868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.429054, "volume": 24093446, "typical_volume": 25368335.1, "trend": 16.398484, "fair_value": 11.168034, "relative_strength": -4.814319, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -54.148328, "energy": 61.943305, "activity_lines": [ 14.705446, 15.249897, 16.203331, 16.471709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.612154, "volume": 20669391, "typical_volume": 24799464.1, "trend": 16.378223, "fair_value": 11.179013, "relative_strength": -11.74711, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.232012, "energy": 79.909306, "activity_lines": [ 13.919195, 14.656751, 15.817896, 16.22743 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.6, "volume": 15533755, "typical_volume": 24500545.4, "trend": 16.383556, "fair_value": 11.197398, "relative_strength": -5.268808, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.804642, "energy": 79.293886, "activity_lines": [ 13.649417, 14.344266, 15.550531, 16.04819 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.68, "volume": 16263049, "typical_volume": 24093779.95, "trend": 16.406223, "fair_value": 11.222831, "relative_strength": -0.669375, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.671888, "energy": 73.641827, "activity_lines": [ 13.843139, 14.309599, 15.40407, 15.938283 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }