{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48fc4d73-86d9-43be-9bd9-3fae67ed44bd", "symbol": "ALKKO", "name": "KKO International SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.532, "architecture_energy": 77.484, "architecture_maturity": 97.783, "architecture_confidence": 94.722, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.81, "rotation_up": 21.4, "upward_expansion": 17.71, "deceleration": 38.41, "rotation_down": 67.91, "downward_expansion": 95.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.06116, 0.063269, 0.066405, 0.070631 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0596, "trend_reference": 0.07789, "distance_from_trend": -0.234818, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.102156, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.416577, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.996906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.412808, "excess_performance": -0.466119, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.234818, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155328, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.416577, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.419969, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048397, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.412808, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.72527, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 384077, "relative_activity": 0.495565, "balance": 0.72527, "dry_up": 0.44258, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088539, "annualized_volatility": 0.484146, "from_high_reference": -0.623975, "from_low_reference": 0.07971 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.07789, "fair_value_reference": 0.102156, "structural_low": 0.0552, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.372093, "directional_follow_through": 0.604651, "median_excess_return": -0.038998, "regime_survival": 0.883721, "best_return": 0.980488, "worst_return": -0.280702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.088652, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.111942, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 3.480198, "worst_return": -0.397015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.154526, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.244843, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.925532, "worst_return": -0.379048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.345566, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.323529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145015, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 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-64.703605, "energy": 53.465243, "activity_lines": [ 0.065533, 0.066218, 0.069744, 0.074569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0648, "volume": 209086, "typical_volume": 808527.75, "trend": 0.081117, "fair_value": 0.102824, "relative_strength": -36.500142, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.620819, "energy": 63.196907, "activity_lines": [ 0.06508, 0.065945, 0.068938, 0.07343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0576, "volume": 550614, "typical_volume": 786950.0, "trend": 0.07947, "fair_value": 0.102492, "relative_strength": -43.384614, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.861834, "energy": 77.199383, "activity_lines": [ 0.062533, 0.064349, 0.067518, 0.071913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0596, "volume": 384077, "typical_volume": 775028.55, "trend": 0.07789, "fair_value": 0.102156, "relative_strength": -41.996906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.532332, "energy": 77.483861, "activity_lines": [ 0.06116, 0.063269, 0.066405, 0.070631 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }