{ "ticker": { "uuid": "490082d8-9f35-47da-8ed5-f50fa3f1166f", "symbol": "EEMV", "name": "ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS MIN VOL FACTOR ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.969, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.867, "architecture_energy": 22.181, "architecture_maturity": 59.94, "architecture_confidence": 81.737, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.5, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 54.31, "deceleration": 90.91, "rotation_down": 30.29, "downward_expansion": 17.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 72.364667, 72.895908, 72.573805, 71.198722 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 73.8, "trend_reference": 69.542506, "distance_from_trend": 0.061221, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 58.640925, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.258507, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.252622, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.100334, "excess_performance": -0.025291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.061221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048647, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.258507, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025063, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031385, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.100334, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.023524, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1375015, "relative_activity": 1.135547, "balance": 1.023524, "dry_up": 0.962884, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042177, "annualized_volatility": 0.214379, "from_high_reference": -0.046348, "from_low_reference": 0.20961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.542506, "fair_value_reference": 58.640925, "structural_low": 62.28321, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009434, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.007343, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.116988, "worst_return": -0.017452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025943, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.005287, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.220569, "worst_return": -0.00738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040777, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.014636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.121902, "worst_return": 0.017746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008822, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048041, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017361, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.057122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"direction": 58.415438, "energy": 48.349032, "activity_lines": [ 74.374579, 73.907358, 71.934921, 70.411723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 70.94, "volume": 1010838, "typical_volume": 1435573.95, "trend": 68.755177, "fair_value": 58.23317, "relative_strength": -1.363398, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.893693, "energy": 28.165676, "activity_lines": [ 73.157333, 73.453173, 72.036915, 70.569338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.57, "volume": 1015982, "typical_volume": 1340081.55, "trend": 69.010596, "fair_value": 58.357146, "relative_strength": 0.116027, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.249487, "energy": 20.11619, "activity_lines": [ 72.378, 73.148648, 72.186102, 70.75094 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 71.4, "volume": 1261925, "typical_volume": 1265515.15, "trend": 69.24878, "fair_value": 58.489058, "relative_strength": -1.150089, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.442009, "energy": 19.697912, "activity_lines": [ 71.881333, 72.799194, 72.284169, 70.905095 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.8, "volume": 1375015, "typical_volume": 1210883.7, "trend": 69.542506, "fair_value": 58.640925, "relative_strength": -1.252622, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.867129, "energy": 22.181042, "activity_lines": [ 72.364667, 72.895908, 72.573805, 71.198722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }