{ "ticker": { "uuid": "490137b1-39cf-4274-b793-640bfdbae175", "symbol": "UBTS", "name": "UBS Core BBG TIPS 1-10 UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.791, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -23.182, "architecture_energy": 24.915, "architecture_maturity": 9.083, "architecture_confidence": 66.724, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.74, "rotation_up": 15.17, "upward_expansion": 14.45, "deceleration": 65.33, "rotation_down": 61.23, "downward_expansion": 41.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 891.033333, 894.334091, 894.575, 894.175226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 888.5, "trend_reference": 893.528847, "distance_from_trend": -0.005628, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 910.46293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024123, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.508788, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005524, "excess_performance": -0.056759, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.005628, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004792, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024123, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005524, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.195785, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 875, "relative_activity": 0.060394, "balance": 0.195785, "dry_up": 0.651338, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008874, "annualized_volatility": 0.063931, "from_high_reference": -0.267731, "from_low_reference": 0.018338 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 893.528847, "fair_value_reference": 910.46293, "structural_low": 872.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002492, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.024946, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.045781, "worst_return": -0.057651, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010716, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.035558, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.059654, "worst_return": -0.072929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006193, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.103496, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.0666, 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"2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.032798, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.001579, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021675, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.33971, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002855, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.812427, "energy": 16.198675, "activity_lines": [ 896.95, 897.475, 895.619643, 894.736677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 897.0, "volume": 12310, "typical_volume": 16935.5, "trend": 894.266107, "fair_value": 910.640787, "relative_strength": -7.901064, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.583826, "energy": 18.071438, "activity_lines": [ 896.125, 897.395455, 895.792262, 894.918843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 888.25, "volume": 15762, "typical_volume": 15061.35, "trend": 894.009953, "fair_value": 910.562264, "relative_strength": -9.570718, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -13.273725, "energy": 19.076495, "activity_lines": [ 892.883333, 895.822727, 895.1375, 894.530707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 888.5, "volume": 875, "typical_volume": 14488.25, "trend": 893.528847, "fair_value": 910.46293, "relative_strength": -9.508788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.182154, "energy": 24.914536, "activity_lines": [ 891.033333, 894.334091, 894.575, 894.175226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }