{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "490519ef-c159-4014-9a0e-be8f2871398d",
    "symbol": "V3AA",
    "name": "Vanguard ESG Global All Cap UCITS ETF (USD) Accumulating",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 78.025,
    "architecture_energy": 54.514,
    "architecture_maturity": 64.36,
    "architecture_confidence": 79.981,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 24.92,
        "rotation_up": 46.64,
        "upward_expansion": 75.72,
        "deceleration": 91.46,
        "rotation_down": 29.57,
        "downward_expansion": 13.72
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        7.5774,
        7.574291,
        7.464457,
        7.288327
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 7.737,
    "trend_reference": 7.085167,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.092,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 5.984356,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.292871,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.695598,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.151854,
    "excess_performance": 0.087214,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.092,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046523,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.292871,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031638,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046956,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.062144,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151854,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.418884,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 357921,
      "relative_activity": 1.570135,
      "balance": 2.418884,
      "dry_up": 1.096739,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.022112,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.136712,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003092,
      "from_low_reference": 0.25255
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 7.085167,
      "fair_value_reference": 5.984356,
      "structural_low": 6.298,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.007022,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.00358,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.091958,
        "worst_return": -0.055498,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.050942,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.035599,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.125161,
        "worst_return": 0.008283,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.109613,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.014993,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.122667,
        "worst_return": 0.096558,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.144662,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.084236,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.193961,
        "worst_return": 0.095364,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.100902,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.025302,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.011996,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.065884,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.073338,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.114029,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.117848,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.018735,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.024967,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.071829,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-20",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.070808,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.076177,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.064207,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 144322.75,
        "trend": 4.4995,
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        "date": "2023-08-25",
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      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "relative_strength": 7.6731,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 5.89233,
        "relative_strength": 7.522709,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 232993.2,
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        "fair_value": 5.911593,
        "relative_strength": 9.942682,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 79.045393,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 291941,
        "typical_volume": 239867.85,
        "trend": 7.0,
        "fair_value": 5.929609,
        "relative_strength": 8.582069,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.725512,
        "energy": 64.590819,
        "activity_lines": [
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          7.351676,
          7.184606
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 7.513,
        "volume": 225795,
        "typical_volume": 239169.95,
        "trend": 7.029033,
        "fair_value": 5.947045,
        "relative_strength": 7.123098,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.109396,
        "energy": 61.459547,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.5606,
          7.553745,
          7.388319,
          7.217703
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 7.442,
        "volume": 124374,
        "typical_volume": 230199.5,
        "trend": 7.0553,
        "fair_value": 5.964564,
        "relative_strength": 3.68995,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 49.447394,
        "energy": 44.886523,
        "activity_lines": [
          7.516867,
          7.537509,
          7.414333,
          7.244346
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 7.737,
        "volume": 357921,
        "typical_volume": 227955.55,
        "trend": 7.085167,
        "fair_value": 5.984356,
        "relative_strength": 4.695598,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 78.025316,
        "energy": 54.514053,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}