{ "ticker": { "uuid": "490c810b-8121-42cf-9de0-4e93d78c9c3d", "symbol": "688590", "name": "Shanghai Newtouch Software Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.705, "architecture_energy": 37.108, "architecture_maturity": 70.933, "architecture_confidence": 82.275, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.2, "rotation_up": 20.99, "upward_expansion": 4.02, "deceleration": 58.32, "rotation_down": 51.77, "downward_expansion": 77.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.685333, 12.719273, 13.522667, 14.057247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.79, "trend_reference": 15.272333, "distance_from_trend": -0.09706, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.599417, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.216451, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.674379, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272296, "excess_performance": -0.229092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115695, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.216451, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100145, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.216744, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272296, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.214326, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 47890842, "relative_activity": 1.151606, "balance": 2.214326, "dry_up": 0.845376, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134825, "annualized_volatility": 0.608581, "from_high_reference": -0.497555, "from_low_reference": 0.274492 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.272333, "fair_value_reference": 17.599417, "structural_low": 10.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.000129, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016006, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.409184, "worst_return": -0.220998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.070938, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.007092, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.487666, "worst_return": -0.344876, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.165721, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.151021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.918468, "worst_return": -0.244665, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.153588, "energy": 73.248635, "activity_lines": [ 12.402, 13.182364, 13.921333, 14.634817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.99, "volume": 23974599, "typical_volume": 41571806.85, "trend": 15.598, "fair_value": 17.736477, "relative_strength": -37.033333, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.849474, "energy": 73.123066, "activity_lines": [ 11.812, 12.639273, 13.614524, 14.322581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.13, "volume": 36551916, "typical_volume": 41170737.05, "trend": 15.434667, "fair_value": 17.657747, "relative_strength": -24.271943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.221315, "energy": 49.450743, "activity_lines": [ 12.166, 12.579636, 13.533048, 14.163355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.79, "volume": 47890842, "typical_volume": 41586138.85, "trend": 15.272333, "fair_value": 17.599417, "relative_strength": -21.674379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.704665, "energy": 37.107702, "activity_lines": [ 12.685333, 12.719273, 13.522667, 14.057247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }