{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4911c35c-be5f-4087-a3a7-70bca6a4188c", "symbol": "DNLM", "name": "Dunelm Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 37.19, "architecture_energy": 59.871, "architecture_maturity": 6.386, "architecture_confidence": 67.695, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.49, "rotation_up": 71.23, "upward_expansion": 53.97, "deceleration": 18.98, "rotation_down": 14.18, "downward_expansion": 26.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 874.433333, 849.009091, 819.992857, 825.854207 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 895.0, "trend_reference": 848.483596, "distance_from_trend": 0.054823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1052.259924, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.14945, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.334484, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.043877, "excess_performance": -0.095113, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102004, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.14945, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153345, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177752, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043877, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.561519, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3083713, "relative_activity": 1.647792, "balance": 2.561519, "dry_up": 1.444617, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05024, "annualized_volatility": 0.298073, "from_high_reference": -0.282352, "from_low_reference": 0.265912 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 848.483596, "fair_value_reference": 1052.259924, "structural_low": 707.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.015531, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.032562, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.039198, "worst_return": -0.043588, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047038, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01619, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151546, "worst_return": 0.004971, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025027, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.15686, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.156076, "worst_return": -0.193264, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.485706, "energy": 24.178488, "activity_lines": [ 845.5, 823.718182, 804.811905, 823.196012 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 869.5, "volume": 2069510, "typical_volume": 1858020.05, "trend": 857.532493, "fair_value": 1053.942483, "relative_strength": -18.306326, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.334302, "energy": 40.217339, "activity_lines": [ 857.6, 834.881818, 811.202381, 823.436948 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 895.0, "volume": 3083713, "typical_volume": 1871421.65, "trend": 848.483596, "fair_value": 1052.259924, "relative_strength": -15.334484, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.189938, "energy": 59.871001, "activity_lines": [ 874.433333, 849.009091, 819.992857, 825.854207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }