{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4912eb40-780a-4315-8c74-d112192c49ab", "symbol": "EXCELINDUS", "name": "Excel Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.82, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.848, "architecture_energy": 56.609, "architecture_maturity": 28.04, "architecture_confidence": 75.243, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.67, "rotation_up": 66.82, "upward_expansion": 80.5, "deceleration": 51.09, "rotation_down": 17.4, "downward_expansion": 16.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 972.726672, 947.325459, 945.279767, 939.579683 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1029.0, "trend_reference": 935.025006, "distance_from_trend": 0.100505, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1069.077602, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.037488, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.271736, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022152, "excess_performance": 0.065861, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.100505, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009229, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.037488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000345, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.042717, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050838, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022152, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.505782, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45376, "relative_activity": 1.178184, "balance": 1.505782, "dry_up": 1.292605, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048688, "annualized_volatility": 0.274658, "from_high_reference": -0.2371, "from_low_reference": 0.28617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 935.025006, "fair_value_reference": 1069.077602, "structural_low": 800.049988, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.020596, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.045492, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.10865, "worst_return": -0.152321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024818, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068658, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.189936, "worst_return": -0.220662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.074978, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.171316, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291756, "worst_return": -0.186776, 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"volume": 45376, "typical_volume": 38513.5, "trend": 935.025006, "fair_value": 1069.077602, "relative_strength": 4.271736, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.848074, "energy": 56.608791, "activity_lines": [ 972.726672, 947.325459, 945.279767, 939.579683 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }