{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "491a0c10-7725-4bd7-baf2-dce0d3da91c5",
    "symbol": "HBSA3",
    "name": "Hidrovias do Brasil S.A.",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -70.742,
    "architecture_energy": 63.382,
    "architecture_maturity": 40.683,
    "architecture_confidence": 89.267,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 27.53,
        "rotation_up": 13.05,
        "upward_expansion": 12.3,
        "deceleration": 39.53,
        "rotation_down": 64.61,
        "downward_expansion": 83.3
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.204,
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        3.343952,
        3.459398
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 3.05,
    "trend_reference": 3.624667,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.158543,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 3.534159,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136994,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -20.026886,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.223919,
    "excess_performance": -0.16687,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.158543,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.040924,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.136994,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.108126,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.200269,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008237,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.223919,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.196827,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 5440900,
      "relative_activity": 0.70035,
      "balance": 0.196827,
      "dry_up": 0.764523,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.083228,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.416757,
      "from_high_reference": -0.305239,
      "from_low_reference": 0.02349
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.624667,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.534159,
      "structural_low": 2.98,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 22,
        "median_return": 0.001189,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.006656,
        "regime_survival": 0.818182,
        "best_return": 0.221591,
        "worst_return": -0.235088,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.003606,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048275,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.514551,
        "worst_return": -0.216236,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.040606,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.883178,
        "worst_return": -0.384502,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.523207,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": 0.1361,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.590361,
        "worst_return": -0.306407,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
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        "end": "2024-02-09",
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        "return": -0.07868,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-16",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008357,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "fair_value": 3.551916,
        "relative_strength": -15.28934,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": -14.849978,
        "stage": 4,
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        "modifier": "Established contraction",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 8344255.0,
        "trend": 3.672667,
        "fair_value": 3.54948,
        "relative_strength": -16.779314,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -42.220125,
        "energy": 21.932634,
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          3.410667,
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          3.431952,
          3.548688
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.42,
        "volume": 7004200,
        "typical_volume": 8071615.0,
        "trend": 3.667333,
        "fair_value": 3.545826,
        "relative_strength": -12.498425,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -35.459749,
        "energy": 23.458128,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.400667,
          3.394909,
          3.420429,
          3.532387
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.14,
        "volume": 6690200,
        "typical_volume": 7859140.0,
        "trend": 3.654,
        "fair_value": 3.540121,
        "relative_strength": -20.806249,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -63.609626,
        "energy": 41.337964,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.298,
          3.355818,
          3.384952,
          3.498366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.05,
        "volume": 5440900,
        "typical_volume": 7768835.0,
        "trend": 3.624667,
        "fair_value": 3.534159,
        "relative_strength": -20.026886,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -70.742291,
        "energy": 63.381838,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.204,
          3.302182,
          3.343952,
          3.459398
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}