{ "ticker": { "uuid": "491c671e-fa09-4e24-8f42-cb349610e925", "symbol": "TASCO", "name": "Tipco Asphalt Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 93.582, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.981, "architecture_energy": 83.613, "architecture_maturity": 12.111, "architecture_confidence": 62.521, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.95, "rotation_up": 82.59, "upward_expansion": 92.68, "deceleration": 41.87, "rotation_down": 8.68, "downward_expansion": 17.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.426667, 14.156364, 13.968095, 13.861311 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 15.2, "trend_reference": 13.800815, "distance_from_trend": 0.101384, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.190754, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07112, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.174327, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.109969, "excess_performance": -0.082356, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101384, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010434, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07112, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.111418, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.041743, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.08797, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.975638, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109996200, "relative_activity": 7.897263, "balance": 4.975638, "dry_up": 3.098914, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02834, "annualized_volatility": 0.209789, "from_high_reference": -0.037975, "from_low_reference": 0.225806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.800815, "fair_value_reference": 14.190754, "structural_low": 12.4, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002762, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007189, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.175011, "worst_return": -0.10396, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020856, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.012178, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.264865, "worst_return": -0.193656, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035354, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011263, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.238485, "worst_return": -0.159855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"trend": 13.74042, "fair_value": 14.18953, "relative_strength": -13.98475, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.506266, "energy": 58.494887, "activity_lines": [ 13.973333, 13.883636, 13.800952, 13.751479 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.0, "volume": 14090900, "typical_volume": 9081440.0, "trend": 13.757185, "fair_value": 14.184986, "relative_strength": -12.607541, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.514235, "energy": 58.725155, "activity_lines": [ 14.02, 13.912727, 13.83, 13.768226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.2, "volume": 109996200, "typical_volume": 13928395.0, "trend": 13.800815, "fair_value": 14.190754, "relative_strength": -4.174327, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.98102, "energy": 83.613271, "activity_lines": [ 14.426667, 14.156364, 13.968095, 13.861311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }