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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 40.282, "architecture_energy": 25.074, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.671, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.98, "rotation_up": 28.73, "upward_expansion": 63.89, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 27.42, "downward_expansion": 16.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 337.566665, 343.288183, 329.070668, 311.290195 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 331.049988, "trend_reference": 286.375668, "distance_from_trend": 0.155999, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 273.853013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.20886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 24.711535, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.390149, "excess_performance": 0.433858, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.155999, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120267, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.20886, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069998, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.247115, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036645, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.390149, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.142926, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15829, "relative_activity": 0.113532, "balance": 1.142926, "dry_up": 0.766594, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092154, "annualized_volatility": 0.380726, "from_high_reference": -0.155485, "from_low_reference": 0.630788 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 286.375668, "fair_value_reference": 273.853013, "structural_low": 204.399994, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.026387, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.032581, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.191453, "worst_return": -0.136429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.10163, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.197441, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.162875, "worst_return": -0.192054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.267733, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33416, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.192017, "worst_return": -0.343448, 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298.814811, 282.357915 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 366.700012, "volume": 27429, "typical_volume": 119601.75, "trend": 267.985002, "fair_value": 272.41968, "relative_strength": 44.396472, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.572624, "energy": 87.883987, "activity_lines": [ 346.32334, 329.120003, 307.128288, 288.956948 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 383.350006, "volume": 309534, "typical_volume": 134746.0, "trend": 272.349668, "fair_value": 272.967116, "relative_strength": 50.00668, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.045408, "energy": 92.242535, "activity_lines": [ 361.92334, 340.885459, 316.376527, 296.399852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 337.350006, "volume": 350745, "typical_volume": 149900.85, "trend": 275.761335, "fair_value": 273.079936, "relative_strength": 30.643215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.404654, "energy": 68.686294, "activity_lines": [ 357.196673, 342.640005, 320.508241, 300.593422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 340.799988, "volume": 37482, "typical_volume": 149982.25, "trend": 279.475335, "fair_value": 273.352692, "relative_strength": 34.218752, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.363445, "energy": 53.206918, "activity_lines": [ 352.580001, 344.500911, 324.442049, 304.789464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 331.950012, "volume": 23467, "typical_volume": 148901.15, "trend": 282.763335, "fair_value": 273.621603, "relative_strength": 26.790383, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.093096, "energy": 42.417124, "activity_lines": [ 344.560004, 344.138186, 327.026003, 308.174927 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 331.049988, "volume": 15829, "typical_volume": 139422.8, "trend": 286.375668, "fair_value": 273.853013, "relative_strength": 24.711535, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.282062, "energy": 25.074007, "activity_lines": [ 337.566665, 343.288183, 329.070668, 311.290195 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }