{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "49219aa3-9ca9-43f5-94cf-e9604e52e18e",
    "symbol": "XMOV",
    "name": "Xtrackers Future Mobility UCITS ETF 1C",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 58.046,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": -3.036,
    "architecture_energy": 30.575,
    "architecture_maturity": 59.449,
    "architecture_confidence": 83.275,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 52.6,
        "rotation_up": 14.02,
        "upward_expansion": 44.13,
        "deceleration": 87.61,
        "rotation_down": 50.82,
        "downward_expansion": 38.13
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        116.454666,
        120.107636,
        122.028666,
        119.277505
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 117.599998,
    "trend_reference": 115.6,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.017301,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 90.727436,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.29619,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -6.717201,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.098963,
    "excess_performance": -0.071929,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017301,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061212,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.29619,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.165848,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.067172,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.183631,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098963,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.966646,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6846,
      "relative_activity": 2.264713,
      "balance": 0.966646,
      "dry_up": 2.289275,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045931,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.254845,
      "from_high_reference": -0.120024,
      "from_low_reference": 0.306086
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 115.6,
      "fair_value_reference": 90.727436,
      "structural_low": 99.269997,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.037581,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.024535,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.149176,
        "worst_return": -0.152923,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.049708,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006316,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.266301,
        "worst_return": -0.062774,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.064125,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019067,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.137477,
        "worst_return": 0.012067,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.190805,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006128,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.367106,
        "worst_return": 0.014505,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-09-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.001171,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-13",
        "end": "2024-10-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.065318,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-11",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.00721,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.054073,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.009666,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-03-21",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.04212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.069092,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.040731,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.029217,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021963,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.102421,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.145082,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-17",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.028601,
        "active": true
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        "energy": 87.237989,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 125.879997,
        "volume": 2293,
        "typical_volume": 6430.4,
        "trend": 106.068666,
        "fair_value": 86.098974,
        "relative_strength": 11.645872,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 94.514192,
        "energy": 97.462337,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 6574.3,
        "trend": 107.032333,
        "fair_value": 86.505449,
        "relative_strength": 12.414474,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 90.598784,
        "energy": 96.245457,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 1836,
        "typical_volume": 6658.0,
        "trend": 107.994999,
        "fair_value": 86.906923,
        "relative_strength": 12.858649,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 86.248975,
        "energy": 94.68715,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 3911,
        "typical_volume": 6843.95,
        "trend": 108.932,
        "fair_value": 87.335384,
        "relative_strength": 14.5616,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.881779,
        "energy": 95.371077,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 1756,
        "typical_volume": 6890.9,
        "trend": 109.725,
        "fair_value": 87.715,
        "relative_strength": 9.943489,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 86.66651,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 126.160004,
        "volume": 4,
        "typical_volume": 6872.2,
        "trend": 110.531,
        "fair_value": 88.066025,
        "relative_strength": 5.288049,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "energy": 68.248522,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 6897.8,
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        "fair_value": 88.473846,
        "relative_strength": 7.106853,
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        "energy": 70.627711,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 126.82,
        "volume": 872,
        "typical_volume": 6928.5,
        "trend": 112.514667,
        "fair_value": 88.83891,
        "relative_strength": 5.803343,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.798729,
        "energy": 60.786316,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 128.149994,
        "volume": 4368,
        "typical_volume": 7115.45,
        "trend": 113.296,
        "fair_value": 89.208141,
        "relative_strength": 3.567881,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 60.634747,
        "energy": 57.672883,
        "activity_lines": [
          128.26,
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          118.295354
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 124.730003,
        "volume": 6724,
        "typical_volume": 7384.3,
        "trend": 114.025,
        "fair_value": 89.556346,
        "relative_strength": 1.060865,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.054011,
        "energy": 46.527123,
        "activity_lines": [
          127.134001,
          127.805637,
          123.139809,
          119.033032
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 114.330002,
        "volume": 1291,
        "typical_volume": 7431.3,
        "trend": 114.408333,
        "fair_value": 89.844102,
        "relative_strength": -6.059845,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 15.04213,
        "energy": 20.664064,
        "activity_lines": [
          122.715334,
          125.334365,
          122.79181,
          119.05271
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 116.089996,
        "volume": 4167,
        "typical_volume": 3789.05,
        "trend": 114.863,
        "fair_value": 90.128013,
        "relative_strength": -4.487924,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 8.885195,
        "energy": 22.733125,
        "activity_lines": [
          119.671999,
          123.393091,
          122.594333,
          119.161204
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 114.290001,
        "volume": 15377,
        "typical_volume": 2715.3,
        "trend": 115.224333,
        "fair_value": 90.413461,
        "relative_strength": -6.638445,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -11.035658,
        "energy": 30.471506,
        "activity_lines": [
          117.094,
          121.318182,
          122.177,
          119.124236
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 117.599998,
        "volume": 6846,
        "typical_volume": 3022.9,
        "trend": 115.6,
        "fair_value": 90.727436,
        "relative_strength": -6.717201,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": -3.035962,
        "energy": 30.574755,
        "activity_lines": [
          116.454666,
          120.107636,
          122.028666,
          119.277505
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}